北京市农村能源消费状况的统计分析.doc

经济学硕士学位论文
北京市农村能源消费状况的统计分析
学位申请人:
指导教师:
学位类别:经济学硕士
学科专业:统计学
授予单位:
答辩日期:二○一○年五月
摘要
能源是人类社会发展必不可少的物质基础。农村能源建设是新农村建设的重要内容之一,是农村居民的基本需求。党中央在“十一五”规划中,提出大力发展农村能源建设。北京农村地区不合理的能源利用结构,严重影响了农村能源建设,影响生活环境,制约了农村社会、经济、环境的和谐发展。因此,使以可再生能源为主的农村能源建设和发展问题越来越受到人们的普遍关注,成为可持续发展战略的主要组成部分和北京农村经济新的增长点与动力。本文运用统计学分析和建模方法,并将定性和定量分析相结合,对北京市农村能源消费状况进行统计分析。文章从能源消费总量和结构两方
面对北京市农村地区的能源消费现状做了综合分析,在此基础上,分析了影响北京市农村能源消费状况的因素,并对
影响因素做了重要性评价,得出人均纯收入是影响北京农村能源消费的最主要因素。鉴于能源系统的复杂性,在预测分析时,比较分析了趋势外推预测模型和灰色动态预测模型,根据预测模型的相对误差最小原则,最终采用GM(1,1)模型对北京市“十二五”期间农村能源消费总量做了预测分析。最后,提出了适合北京地区农村能源发展的政策建议:建立健全政策法规;科学制定规划;转变能源结构,建立合理的能源价格体系;加大宣传,合理开发可再生能源;加大农村能源投入力度,拓宽资金渠道;加大科研工作,构建完善服务体系。
关键词农村能源消费因子分析GM(1,1)模型
目录
第1章绪论··························1
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、研究方法与创新点·············5
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第2章农村能源消费的相关理论研究················7
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第3章北京市农村能源消费现状分析··················14
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,对外依存度高···········14
,结构不合理·············14
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第4章北京市农村能源消费的影响因素分析············27
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