基于模糊约束的空中交通流量预测模型研究.doc

基于模糊约束的空中交通流量预测模型研究
王新语谢扬
空军哈尔滨飞行学院
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摘    要:
鉴于传统流量预测模型存在预测精度差、耗时长、效率低的不足, 将模糊约束引入空中交通系统, 用于表示人工智能领域中一些不确定的信息, 构建了基于模糊约束的空中交通流量预测模型。通过分析影响模糊约束的决策向量、模糊参数向量及模糊约束集三个因素, 提出预测模型的构建流程, 选取空中交通路线多转折点, 并获取模糊矩阵, 建立了空中交通流量预测模型。实验结果表明, 对空中交通流量进行预测时, 采用改进的预测模型相比传统预测模型的预测结果较优、耗时较短、精度较高。
关键词:
模糊约束; 空中交通流量; 预测模型; 空中管制; 航空器;
作者简介:王新语(1989—) , 男, 江苏盐城人, 硕士, 助理工程师, 主要研究方向为航空管制与领航工程。E-mail:pkyx0010@。
收稿日期:2017-08-08
Air Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Fuzzy Constraint
WANG Xin-yu XIE Yang
School of People′s Liberation Army Air Force Harbin Flight Academy;
Abstract:
In view of the ings of the traditional flow prediction model, such as poor uracy, long time consumption and low efficiency, fuzzy constraint was applied to describe some uncer-tain information of artificial intelligence in air traffic system, and an air traffic flow forecasting modelwas built based on the fuzzy constraint. By analyzing three factors of decision vector, fuzzy parametervector and fuzzy constraint set, the construction process of prediction model was put forward, some multi-ple turning points of air traffic route was chosen, the fuzzy matrix was obtained, and the air traffic flowforecasting model was built. The experimental results show that the improved prediction model has bet-ter prediction effect, shorter time consumpt