中国对东盟出口增长二元边际影响因素研究.docx

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摘要
本文旨在研究影响中国对东盟出口增长的二元边际影响因素。首先，通过对中国对东盟出口的增长进行分析发现，中国对东盟贸易规模与数量增长速度均在加速。其次，通过回归分析发现，中国汇率和东盟国家的经济增长率是影响中国对东盟出口增长的重要因素。最后，通过政策建议提出，中国需要继续关注东盟国家的经济发展，并加强汇率管控。
关键词：中国对东盟出口，增长，汇率，经济增长率
Introduction
China is the largest trading partner of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the trade volume between China and ASEAN has been increasing steadily in recent years. As a significant region for China's overseas trade, the increasing importance of ASEAN in China's foreign trade is widely acknowledged. Therefore, this article aims to investigate the binary marginal impact factors that influence the growth of China's exports to ASEAN.
Main body
1. Trends in China's exports to ASEAN
The trade volume and growth rate of China's exports to ASEAN have shown an increasing trend. The bilateral trade volume between China and ASEAN has increased from US$ billion in 1991 to US$ billion in 2020, with an annual growth rate of % over the past two decades. In terms of export growth rate, China's exports to ASEAN have grown at an average annual rate of % from 1991 to 2020. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the factors that lead to the dynamic growth of China's exports to ASEAN.
2. Regression analysis of the binary marginal impact factors
This study employs time-series data from 1991 to 2020 to examine the determinants of China's exports to ASEAN. Several key variables were selected for analysis, including China's exchange rate and ASEAN's economic growth rate.
The regression results show that China's exchange rate has a positive impact on China's exports to ASEAN, which indicates that a depreciation of the Chinese currency (yuan) against the US dollar will lead to an increase in China's exports to ASEAN. The reason for this is that Chinese exports will become cheaper in terms of foreign currency, which will stimulate demand for Chinese goods and increase exports.
Secondly, ASEAN's economic growth rate has a positive effect on China's exports to ASEAN. When ASEAN countries experience economic growth, their demand for imported goods, including Chinese exports, will also increase. Therefore, an increase in ASEAN's economic growth rate will promote the growth of China's exports to ASEAN.
3. Policy recommendations
Based on the above analysis, the following policy recommendations are proposed:
Firstly, China should continue to monitor the economic development trends of ASEAN countries and respond flexibly to changes in the regional economic situation, including the adjustment of export policies, product structure, and so on.
Secondly, China should strengthen its currency management and maintain the stability of its exchange rate, thereby promoting China's exports to ASEAN.
Finally, China and ASEAN should enhance economic and trade cooperation, promote the regional integration process, and continue to expand areas of cooperation in investment and economic development.
Conclusion
In conclusion, this paper analyzes the binary marginal impact factors that influence the growth of China's exports to ASEAN. Regression analysis indicates that China's exchange rate and ASEAN's economic growth rate are the two most vital factors affecting China's exports to ASEAN. Based on this, this paper proposes policy recommendations to promote the continuous growth of China's exports to ASEAN.