麦格理-日本-宏观策略-日本宏观策略：2018年聚焦.pdf

JAPAN Japan macro-strategy
Strategy summary:
We believe we are in a stock-picking 2018 in focus
environment and based on historical
Earnings and valuations: Both the 2018 Global Economic and Market Outlook:
experience, the best performers are
Make hay while the sun shines by Ric Deverell et al, and the Rights, Wrongs &
associated with high ROEs—an average of
Returns: 2018 – Year of choices & consequences by Viktor Shvets are
% across all of the tables in the linked
supportive of Japanese equities: Our global macro outlook supports continued
report. We showcase high panies
mild positive earnings revision momentum; we regard Japanese equity
by theme: Aging Japan, Internationalisation,
valuations to be in line with historical norms.
Founder/entrepreneurs & large cash
balances
TOPIX EPS consensus revisions by fiscal year
The Macquarie Marquee ideas: our
150
highest conviction analyst calls ¥ FY03/11 FY03/12 FY03/13 FY03/14 FY03/15
Stock Ticker Rec C/P T/P % FY03/16 FY03/17 FY03/18 FY03/19
Sakata Seed 1377 OP 3,585 3,800 130
Japan o 2914 OP 3,705 4,800
Rengo 3941 OP 723 800
110
JXTG Holdings 5020 OP 740
Tadano 6395 OP 1,762 2,100

MinebeaMitsumi 6479 OP 2,281 2,400 90

Mitsubishi Electric 6503 OP 1, 2,180
Nissan 7201 OP 1, 1,540
Nintendo 7974 OP 46,610 55,000 70
Tokyo Electron 8035 OP 23,345 29,750

Kajima 1812 UP 1,141 750 - 50
Note: Prices are as of 24 November 2017

Source: JPX (Tokyo Stock Exchange), Macquarie
Research, November 2017 30
15 times consensus FY3/19E TOPIX
EPS of is TOPIX 1770
Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, November 2017
Japan-related macro reports The outlook for the BOJ: We expect the BOJ to remain the global outlier, with
Japan’s debt-deleveraging marathon no change to its targeting of 10-year government bond