亚洲电信产业研究报告.doc

Asia Pan-Asia
munications
2 July 2010
Asian s Sector Half-time review in a challenging year
William Bratton
Research Analyst (+852) 2203 6186 @
1H10 trends generally support our regional sector view
The Asian telco sector has had a relatively good 1H10 with strong performances in Malaysia, China and Thailand while the Indian, Philippine and Indonesian telco sectors have performed the worst. We expect the key 1H10 themes (smartphones, competition and NBNs) to persist into 2H10 and maintain our regional preferences. Within the sector we mend over-weighting China, Indonesia, Taiwan and Thailand and under-weighting India, Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines. Our preferred telcos remain AIS, CHT, LGT, STH, TLKM and .
A relatively good 2010 first half for the Asian telco sector
The MSCI Asia ex-JP Services Index (MXASJTC) is up 3% over the last
six months and has out-performed the MSCI Asia ex-JP Index (MXASJ) by approx
8%. Nearly two-thirds of DB covered telcos achieved absolute price gains and most DB covered telcos out-performed their local benchmarks since end-2009.
Specifically, the best 1H10 performing sectors across the region in terms of total
market cap changes were Malaysia (+9%) and China (+8%) while the worst were
India (-12%), the Philippines (-7%) and Indonesia (-7%). The best performing telco was XL Axiata while both Axiata and PCCW achieved >20% price gains over the
last six months. In contrast, during 1H10 TCNZ’s price fell 24% (close to 20yr lows), Tata is down 22%, Bharti lost 20% and Telkom declined 19% (see inside
for 1H10 reviews for specific stocks).
Key 1H10 themes likely to persist into 2H10
1H10 sector themes were generally dominated by smartphones and mobile data
(in Korea, Singapore and Taiwan), competition trends (especially in India and the
Philippines) and National work developments (in Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Singapore). We expect these same issues to continue to dominate into 2H10. However,