[硕士论文]水环境质量之影响因子与评价模拟实例研究.pdf

上海交通大学
硕士学位论文
水环境质量之影响因子与评价模拟实例研究
姓名:岳文洁
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:环境规划与管理
指导教师:刘书俊
20080101
水环境质量之影响因子与评价模拟实例研究
水环境质量之影响因子与评价模拟实例研究

摘要

本文基于闵行水环境质量状况,依据水功能区划及闵行“十一五”
发展规划目标,分别对自然状态下和人为调控条件下的“十一五”期末
闵行污染物排放量进行模拟预测,并进行比较研究。经过调整后的闵行,
可以减少 吨的 COD 排放,进而得出环境质量优选和污染物减排
的控制方案。
以“环境库兹涅茨曲线”假说的拓展分析入手,联系闵行环境影响
因子,诸如 COD,SO2,烟尘,粉尘等污染物,建立人均 GDP 与其排放量
与排放负荷的图形,进行曲线拟合及比较分析,得到过去十年的环境质
量状况,并对“十一五”期末两个模型预测得到的闵行环境经济曲线进
行拟合比较,得出环境质量的分析方法。
选取环境影响因子之 COD、SO2,将其与不同产业的污染水平进行关
联分析。实地调查测算出 2006 年上海及闵行各行业的 COD 与 SO2 排放强
度,并分类将上海(33 大类和 153 中类)及闵行的行业与全进行比较研究。通过该研究,得出区域产业发展中污染
物排放与控制的最优水平模式;进而通过测算该污染物排放当量数,得
出某一产业发展中相关污染物的治理成本,为该项环境价值核算提供技
术支撑。
针对闵行实例,就单因子评价法、综合指数法和模糊数学评价法进
行环境质量评价方法综合比较分析,得出闵行水环境质量评价的最优方
法——“闵行地表水质量模糊数学评价法”。

关键词:环境质量, 环境影响因子, 预测模型, 环境库兹涅茨曲线,
污染物排放负荷, 环境评价方法



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水环境质量之影响因子与评价模拟实例研究
The Impact Factors of Water Quality and the
Evaluation and Simulation of Case Study


ABSTRACT

Based on the water quality status of Minhang, according to the Division
of Water function and the "11th Five-Year" development planning objectives
of Minhang, the emission of pollutant of Minhang at the end of "11th
Five-Year" period was simulated and forecasted respectively under the
conditions of natural and man-made regulation. The two prediction models
paratively studied. After man-made adjustment, the emission of
COD could be reduced by tons at Minhang. Therefor, the optimal
mode of environmental quality and pollutant emission reduction program
was introduced.
Based on the "Environmental s Curve" hypothesis, aimed at the
environmental impact factors of Minhang, such as COD, SO2 , soot, dust and
other pollutants, graphics of per capita GDP versus their emissions and
emission load were established, the curves of the environment quality at
Minhang of the past 10 years were analyzed and simulated. The economic
environment curves of the two prediction models of Minhang by the end of