房地产价格波动研究-金融学专业毕业论文.docx

摘 要
上海房地产业经过20多年的改革和发展,发生了巨大的变化。特别是近几年来, 房地产业走出了多年的调整期,呈现持续繁荣的状态,并已成为区域经济的新增长点和消费热点。在市场持续火爆的同时,上海房地产市场的价格也连续多年呈现快速上升的态势。面对上海房价的急剧上升,广大市民普遍流露出“恐涨心理”,房地产价格已成为社会各界关注的热点话题。本文以此为背景展开研究。
本文在房地产价格波动理论的基础上,采用定性和定量相结合的研究方法,从理论和实证两个方面对房地产市场的价格波动和未来发展趋势进行分析。首先从上海房地产业的发展现状及存在问题入手。指出房地产价格波动研究的必要性和重要性:接着运用冲击,传导理论分析了房地产价格波动的运行机理,并从理论上对房地产价格波动的影响因素进行详细阐述;然后运用“蛛网模型”对上海房地产市场的价格波动规律进行考察,并对影响上海房价波动的主要因素进行了定量分析;最后采用多元回归分析方法对上海房地产价格的未来发展趋势进行预测,并在此基础上提出了相应的对策建议。
关键词:房地产,价格波动,上海
ABSTRACT
The real estate of Shanghai has changed enormously through the reform and development of more than 20 in recent years,the real estate went out of the adjustment period for many years,appeared a continuously prosperous state,and has already e a new point of growth and consumption hot spots of the regional the market prevails lastingly,the situation of rising fast at the price of the real estate market of Shanghai appears for years the face of the rapid rising of the room price in Shanghai,the masses of citizens generally reveal ”psychology of probably rising”,the room price has already e the hot topic that the various circles of society have paid close attention thesis takes this
as the background to launch research。
This thesis founds the price fluctuation theory of real estate,adopts determination and ration research approaches bine together,and arialyses real estate price fluctuate of market and the development trend from theory and real
author proceeds with the current development situation and existing
problems of the real estate of Shanghai first,points out the necessity and importance of researching the price fluctuate of the real estate;Then uses assault and conduct theory to analyze the price fluctuation of the real estate,and explains the influence factors of the price fluctuation of the real estate in detail from theory; uses”spider web model”幻research the price fluctuation of real estate of Shanghai, and has carried on quantitat