大众汽车成本分析和利润预测.pdf

China profit analysis
Volkswagen ()
Germany: Automobiles

Weaker Chinese margins a risk for ’04 earnings. China
" "
is likely to contribute 70%-80% of VW’s EPS this year, but 3Q
November 6, 2003 results show worrying signs of falling earnings in this market. If
Stock rating: In-Line Chinese profits decline in 2004, the impact could offset some of the
Coverage view: Neutral gains expected from the new Golf/other models in Europe. IL/N.
Large-Cap Growth
Price:


Chinese profits are the main driver of 2003 earnings
This report is based on our
morning note of November 4, VW's strong exposure to the Chinese auto market is often cited as a positive for the stock.
2003. China will likely be the key driver of earnings in 2003, contributing %-80% of reported
EPS thanks to equity e from the JVs and operating profits from selling parts.
One quarter does not make a trend, but 3Q results show worrying signs
We see worrying signs in VW's 3Q results that Chinese profits may already be slipping. Pro-
forma EBIT from the Chinese JVs fell 35% yoy, despite much higher volumes, suggesting
much lower margins. Profits from selling parts to the Chinese JVs also appeared to fall. We
Keith Hayes also see some evidence that inventories of Polo, Gol and Audi A6 are rising in China.
@
London: 44-20-7774-1142 A weak Chinese result in 2004 could reduce EPS by or more
We estimate that China will contribute over of EPS in 2003, and our current 2004E
Max Warburton
@ forecast assumes of EPS derives from China. But if Chinese profits in 2004 run at
London: 44-20-7774-5905 3Q’s weak level, the Chinese contribution could easily fall to only next year.
Manning Doherty Gains from Golf and Germany may not be enough for VW to hit consensus
@
Hong Kong: 852-2978-1024 2004 is likely to see VW’s US profitability fall further, probabl