印制板总规程(PDF 15).pdf

Copyright 2003
BusinessBusiness BreakfastBreakfast
Budget airlines in Europe
Frankfurt, July 8, 2003
The steep climb of the low-cost carriers prompts two questions
Is the low-cost carriers‘ ess a flash in the pan, or is it
1 here to stay?
Will the low-cost carriers threaten or even displace the
2 incumbent national airlines such as Lufthansa?
Source: McKinsey
Up to 2007: rapid growth in the low-cost segment 1
Percent (millions of passengers)
Growth .,
Total traffic within Europe 2001 - 2007
(365)(435) (600)
100%
Charter 23 21 19 + %
67 + %
Traditional 72
75
airline traffic
14 + 20%
Low-cost 2 7
carriers
1998 2001 2007E
Source: AEA, ERA, IATA, Airline Business, annual reports, Air Transport World
Their ess is based on a unit cost advantage of up to 60% 1
Comparison of unit costs of flights within Europe, 2001
Unit costs in USDc/ASK*, adjusted by distance flown(800 km)
Top 3 national airlines
easyJet low-cost
Top 3
Ryanair carriers
(international)

Top 3
Ownership of
(domestic)
aircraft
Top 3 Airport/air traffic
GB charter control

easyJet

Sales
Ryanair
-40%
Crew
-60%
* Available seat kilometers
Source: AEA, ICAO, annual reports, McKinsey analysis
But: there will only be a very few permanently essful 1
players –“winner(s) take(s) all” effect
Operating margin, average 1997 - 2001, in percent of revenue
Ryanair 24
Europe
Other low-cost
-5
carriers
Southwest 15
USA
Other low-cost
-2
carriers
Source: US Dept of Transportation, annual reports
Starting point of European low-cost carriers for 1
petition
Market shares and performance
Share of capacity in low-cost segment Operating margin
Percent Percent of revenue
100% = mill. seats per week
40
Ryanair
Others 30
Sonstige Ryanair
(incl. Buzz) 20
Virgin Express 12 Ryanair
4
(mit Buzz) 10
HLX 4 34
Virgin
FlyBE