摩根斯坦利中国汽车市场研究报告.pdf

Comment Page 1

Equity Research
Asia/Pacific
Economics
China Economics
Andy Xie Economic Trends November 17, 2004
+852 2848 5220
@ The Car Story
RECENT REPORTS • China’s car market is entering the price-war phase
Asia/Pacific: The Fantasy Trade Car production capacity has over-expanded, as producers have wrongly extrapolated
Andy Xie November 11, 2004 the past high growth and high price market into future potential.

Asia/Pacific: The Casino • But the price war could turn China’s car industry into a key export industry
Andy Xie November 12, 2004 The price war is likely to force car manufacturers to ponents, which will
scale up the parts industry and bring down costs. In five years, China’s production
China: Property Market Turning costs will be lower than international costs, in my view.
Andy Xie November 7, 2004
The outsourcing model could turn China into a major car exporter
•
The auto industry could follow the PC or home appliance industry in using outsourcing
for cost management. This could turn China into a major exporter.
• Excessive optimism is also causing the property industry to over-expand
Similarly, the property market has over-expanded by extrapolating past sales trends.
However, the boom-burst cycles in manufacturing industries lead petitive
export businesses that sustain China’s growth. Such benefi