中信证券-煤炭行业专题研究之国际专题-081009.pdf

៥೑✸⚁䖯ߎষऴѻ䞣↨䕗ᇣ
೑䰙✸Ꮦᇍ೑ݙ✸Ӌᕅડϡ໻
✸⚁㸠Ϯϧ乬ⷨおП✸⚁gϧ乬ⷨお
೑䰙ϧ乬 2008 ᑈ 10 ᳜ 9 ᮹Ёᗻ˄䇗Ԣ˅

ᡩ䌘㽕⚍ ߚᵤᏜ
5 㒣⌢থሩᇍ㛑⑤ձ䌪ᗻ๲ᔎDŽ2001̚2005 ᑈϪ⬠㛑⑤䳔∖ᑇഛ๲䭓⥛Ў⥟䞢
ᑈЎ %ˈ໻໻催Ѣ 1991̚1995 ᑈⱘ %∈ᑇDŽ㕢೑Ёֵ䆕ࠌ✸⚁㸠Ϯ佪ᐁߚᵤᏜ %
੠⃻⌆ㄝথ䖒೑ᆊϪ⬠㛑⑤䳔∖๲䭓ԢѢ ๲䭓ⱘࡼ࡯Џ㽕ᴹ㞾Ѣ䚂ӊ˖wye@
010-84588402
থሩЁ೑ᆊDŽЁ೑ǃॄᑺㄝ៤ЎϪ⬠㛑⑤䳔∖๲䭓ⱘЏ㽕ࡼ࡯DŽ ⬉䆱˖
5 Ϫ⬠㛑⑤䌘⑤ߚᏗϡഛDŽϪ⬠㛑⑤ߚᏗഄऎϡഛ㸵ˈ৘ഄऎ㛑⑤⍜䌍㒧
ᵘϢ䆹ഄऎ䌘⑤⽔䌟ᆚߛⳌ݇DŽ⷇࣪➗᭭೼ϔ⃵㛑⑤⍜䌍Ёऴ↨䖒ࠄ
89%DŽ㗠䖥ᑈᴹ䱣ⴔ⷇⊍ӋḐϞ⍼ˈܼ⧗㛑⑤⍜䌍ᓔྟ৥✸⚁䌘⑤ؒ᭰DŽ
5 ✸⚁೑䰙䌌ᯧ䞣ऴܼ⧗✸⚁ѻ䞣↨䞡䕗ᇣDŽ⬅ѢЁ೑Ϣ㕢೑԰ЎϸϾ✸
⦃ѻϢ⍜䌍໻೑ˈᅗӀ೑ݙ⫳ѻϢ䳔∖໻ԧऍ䜡˗ࡴϞ✸⚁ⳌᇍѢ݊Ⳍᇍᣛ᭄㸼⫳⚁
Ҫϔ⃵㛑⑤ӋḐऩԡᒝӋᗻˈࠊ㑺✸⚁໻䎱⾏೑䰙䌌ᯧ㒣⌢ᗻ˗಴ℸˈЁᷛ 㛑⑤✸⚁
ܼ⧗✸⚁ⱘ䌌ᯧ䞣ऴѻ䞣Ў↨䞡㑺Ў 14%ˈϡ㢹೑䰙݊Ҫϔ⃵㛑⑤䌌ᯧ
䞣Ϣѻ䞣ऴ↨DŽҢ 2007 ᑈϪ⬠✸⚁䌌ᯧ䞣ⳟˈܼ⧗✸⚁ѻ䞣Ў 66 ғৼˈ
9 %
Ԛ✸⚁䌌ᯧ䞣Ўғৼˈ䌌ᯧ䞣ऴܼ⧗ѻ䞣↨䞡ЎDŽ⬅Ѣ✸⚁䌌
ᯧ䞣ऴܼ⧗✸⚁ѻ䞣ⱘ↨䞡↨՟ϡ໻ˈ೼ॳ᳝✸⚁ܼ⧗կ∖ᑇ㸵ϟˈӏ

ԩϔϾ᳝ᕅડ✸⚁䳔✸೑䳔∖䞣ⱘ⊶ࡼˈ䛑Ӯᇍ೑䰙✸⚁ӋḐ䗴៤䞡໻
ᕅડDŽ 
 ೑䰙✸⚁Ꮦഎᇍ೑ݙ✸⚁ӋḐᕅડ⫮ᖂDŽ᳔䖥ⱘ 10 ᑈ䯈ˈЁ೑ⱘ✸⚁䖯 5
ߎষ㒣ग़њϸϾ䰊↉˖1998~2002 ᑈˈ䖯ষ๲䭓㓧᜶ˈߎষ๲䭓䖙䗳˗    
✸ᇥDŽ䖭ᰃ੠៥೑䖥ᑈᴹ೑ݙޣᑈˈ䖯ষᖿ䗳๲䭓ˈߎষ䗤⏤ 2007~2003
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳
✸ˈ㋻ⱘሔ䴶㋻ᆚⳌ݇ⱘDŽ៥Ӏ乘䅵 2008̚2010 ᑈأ䳔∖ᔎࢆ㗠կ㒭⚁
⚁䖯ߎষᇚ㓈ᣕᑇ㸵ˈ䖯ߎষ䞣ߚ߿Ў 5000 ϛৼǃ4500 ϛৼ੠ 4500 ϛ
ৼDŽ⛺⚁ߎষᇚ〇ᅮ೼ 1500 ϛৼˈߎষ⛺⚁ॳ✸⍜㗫䞣Ў 2835 ϛৼDŽ 㸠Ϯ㸼ᕕᣛᷛ
Ѣ៥೑✸⚁ⱘᇍ໪ձᄬᑺᵕԢˈ೑䰙✸⚁ӋḐⱘⷁᳳ⊶ࡼᇍ೑ݙ✸⚁㸠Ϯ᱃⇨䍟࢓Ę⬅
ӋḐᕅડϡ໻˗䭓ᳳᴹⳟˈ⬅Ѣ䌘⑤ⱘ⿔㔎ᗻǃϟ␌ѻકᏺᴹⱘय़࡯ǃ
㸠Ϯ߽⍺๲䭓⥛ 120%
ҹঞ៤ᴀ಴㋴ˈ߭䛑ਜ⍼࢓DŽ
22
೑䰙✸ӋϢ⷇⊍ӋḐᔎⳌ݇ˈϢ݊Ҫ໻ᅫଚકӋḐᔅⳌ݇DŽ೑䰙✸⚁Ӌ㸠ϮԄؐ∈ᑇ 5
ḐϢ೑䰙⷇⊍ӋḐਜ⦄䕗ᔎⱘⳌ݇ᗻˈৠ԰Ў䞡㽕ⱘ㛑⑤⠽䌘ˈ✸⚁Ϣ㸠Ϯᡩ䌘䆘㑻Ёᗻ
⷇⊍ᄬ೼ϔϾⳌᇍ〇ᅮⱘ↨䕗݇㋏ˈ08 ᑈҹᴹ೑䰙✸ӋⱘϞ⍼䚼ߚᰃফ
೑䰙⷇⊍ӋḐϞ⍼ⱘᢝछ᠔㟈ˈ㗠䖥ᳳ೑䰙✸Ӌᓔྟಲ㨑ˈгফࠄ⊍Ӌ
Ⳍ݇ⷨお
ಲ㨑ⱘᕅડDŽ䰸⷇⊍໪ˈ៥Ӏ䖬ᇍ೑䰙⥝㉇ǃ໻䈚ǃᇣ呺ㄝ໻ᅫଚકⱘ
ӋḐ੠೑䰙✸Ӌ䖯㸠ᇍ↨ˈথ⦄Ѡ㗙ᑊϡᄬ೼〇ᅮⱘ↨䕗݇㋏ˈব࣪䍟lj✸⚁㸠Ϯ䇗ⷨᖿ᡹üቅϰ˖⬉✸㋻ᓴ࢓༈᳾
࢓䖹ᓖDŽ ޣˈ⛺⚁ӋḐ〇Ёਜ䎠NJ... 2008 ᑈ 9 ᳜ 9 ᮹
䞡⚍݀ৌⲜ߽乘⌟ঞᡩ䌘䆘㑻˄ᚆ㾖乘ᳳ˖09 ᑈ䰤Ӌ˅lj✸⚁㸠Ϯ䇗ⷨᖿ᡹üቅ㽓˖7 ᳜ѻ䫔⦃↨ϟ
... 2008 9 9
EPS˄ܗ˅ PE ⒥ˈ✸⚁կ㒭ձ✊㋻ᓴNJ ᑈ᳜᮹
㙵Ӌ 09 ᑈϮ
ㅔ⿄Џ✸⾡lj✸⚁㸠Ϯ䇗ⷨᖿ᡹ü⫬ᅕ˖䖤࡯䍟㋻᥼ࡼ✸
˄ܗ˅ 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E 㒽বࡼ
ӋϞ⍼NJ............................... 2008 ᑈ 9 ᳜ 9 ᮹
Ё೑⼲ढ 22 14 13 ࡼ࡯✸䇗Ԣ
lj✸⚁㸠Ϯ䇗ⷨᖿ᡹üѥ䌉˖կᑨ㋻ᓴˈѻᬜ
Ё✸㛑⑤ 25 16 13 ࡼ࡯✸䇗Ԣ
ᕙछNJ................................... 2008 ᑈ 9 ᳜ 9 ᮹
㽓ቅ✸⬉ 13 11 11 ⛺✸䇗Ԣ
┲ᅝ⦃㛑 17 9 7 ஋਍✸䇗Ԣ
೑䰙ᅲϮ 33 12 11 ⛺⚁䇗Ԣ
˗䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼乘⌟⊼˖㙵ӋЎ 2008 ᑈ 10 ᳜ 7 ᮹ᬊⲬӋ
䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
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