不错的资料：j.p morgan：eye on the market 2009.pdf

Eye on the Market

By Michael Cembalest - Chief Investment Officer, . Morgan Global Wealth Management



The mentary has been developed exclusively for . Morgan's private banking clients. To preserve the
integrity of our ongoing dialogue with you, it is important that this information remain private.

Eye on the Market, February 2, 2009

Topics: market update, investment opportunities and "The Conversation"

Market update: 4 issues we're watching

• Around half of the S&P 500 by market cap has reported, and Q4 2008 non-financial
earnings are down -22% , as weakness spreads outside financials (a). Q1 2009 S&P
consensus earnings estimates have fallen from $ to $ since Jan 1.
• On the widely reported Aggregator Bank concept, the process for setting the prices
paid for toxic assets is unknown (a key distinction from the RTC, which never bought
assets from going-concern banks). The details of pricing and concessions make all
the difference in terms of what it means for bank market valuations, capital ratios and
profits. It's good news for depositors and creditors.
• Other positive news on credit: the Fed'mercial Paper facility fell by $100 billion,
as panies obtained financing elsewhere.
• On the urgent need to reduce foreclosures, one solution could be safe harbor
provisions giving temporary expanded p