Market Response Models - Econometric, Time-Series Analysis 2nd ed - D. Hanssens, et al., (Kluwer) WW(2).pdf

MARKET RESPONSE MODELS
Econometric and Time Series Analysis
Second Edition
by
Dominique M. Hanssens
University of California, Los Angeles
Leonard J. Parsons
ia Institute of Technology
Randall L. Schultz
University of Iowa
KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS
NEW YORK, BOSTON, DORDRECHT, LONDON, MOSCOW
CONTENTS
Preface xi
I. INTRODUCTION 1
1. Response Models for Marketing Management 3
Modeling Marketing Systems 4
Empirical Response Models 8
Marketing Management Tasks 10
Marketing Information 13
Model-Based Planning and Forecasting 16
Plan of the Book 19
2. Markets, Data, and Sales Drivers 23
Markets 24
Data 25
Response Measures and Drivers 48
Aggregation 70
Road Map of Market Response Modeling Techniques 75
II. MARKET RESPONSE IN STATIONARY MARKETS 87
3. Design of Static Response Models 89
Relations Among Variables 90
Functional Forms 94
Aggregation of Relations 129
viii
4. Design of Dynamic Response Models 139
Specification Issues in Dynamic Models 140
Discrete Time Models of Carryover 142
Shape of the Response Function Revisited 156
Reaction Functions 166
Temporal Aggregation Revisited 173
Marketing Models and Prior Knowledge 178
5. Parameter Estimation and Model Testing 183
Classification of Variables 184
Estimation 185
Testing 201
Flexible Functional Forms 225
Model Selection 229
Confirmatory vs. Exploratory Data Analysis 240
III. MARKET RESPONSE IN EVOLVING MARKETS 249
6. Single Marketing Time Series 251
Why Analyze Single Marketing Time Series? 252
ponents of a Time Series 253
Univariate Time Series Models 262
Model Identification and Estimation 269
Evolution vs. Stationarity 279
7. Multiple Marketing Time Series 285
The Transfer Function Model 286
Multivariate Persistence 298
Incorporating Long-Term Equilibrium Conditions 303
Diagnosing Long-Term Marketing Strategic Scenarios 305
Empirical Causal Ordering 309
On Using Time Series Analysis 315
ix
IV. SOLVING MA