-andSmall-CapBanksCreditCyclePlaybookThePerfectStormBrewingforaMajorCreditCycleDownturnWithaCorporateDebtBubbleNowinSightBeforewegetintoouranalysis,,theintentionofthisreportistoringthealarmbellsonamajorrisktotheeconomywhich,iftriggered(likelybyarecession),,weseeaperfectstormbrewingand,eerily,(primarilyinEuropeandJapan),“followthemoney”toobservethat,withinterestratesbeingpushedintodeeplynegativeterritoryabroad,,withintheUSithasbeenafeedingfrenzyononespecificassetclasswhichoffersamongthehighestrelativeyieldsintheworld:,with1/3ofC&Ilendingnowbeingdonebynon-,higherriskloanmarkets,suchasleveragedlending,aswellashigherrisksegmentsofthebondmarket,includingBBB-rateddebt,havesurgedto21%,itwilllikelymagnifyone,esapparenthowillequippedmanyofthenewernon-(1)centralbankshaveverylimitedtoolsatthisjuncturewhile(2)banksmaynotbethehistoricalbuffersthattheywereinthepast(tiedtonewregulations).Keytakeaway:withtheeconomystillhealthy,,inadditiontocorporatedebtincreasing50%fromthefinancialcrisispeak,theleveragedloanmarkethasdoubledinsizeoverthelastdecadeto$~80%,corporatebondsratedatthelowestrungoftheinvestmentgradespectrum,orBBB,havetripledinsizefrom2010to$-ratedbondsnowmaking
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