PublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedprisingLuanZhao(TaskTeamLeader),SebastianEckardt,EkaterineVashakmadze,MariaAnaLugo,DineshNair,DewenWang,,IbrahimSaeedChowdhury,YangHuang,ChiyuNiu,,ErgysIslamaj,FranzUlrichRuch,WooriLee,WeiHan,IleanaCristinaConstantinescu,,JosefinaPosadas,ShiyongWang,,AparnaaSomanathan,CarlosArteta,DeepakMishra,HassanZaman,IrinaAstrakhan,MartinRaiser,PhilipO’,LiLi,XiaotingLi,LinYang,,interpretations,(lli2@).TableofContentsExecutiveSummary 8COVID-19Shock 12EconomicandSocialImpacts 15Covid-19ledtoadeepcontractionofGDPinthefirstquarter 15Activityhasstartedtorebound,buttherecoveryremainsuneven 17Externaltradeactivityhasbeenvolatile 20Inflationhaseased elosseshavetakenaneconomictollonhouseholds 27Corporaterevenueandprofitshavetakenahit 28Creditrisksarerising,foreshadowingpotentialbankingsectortroubles 30Thefiscaldeficitiswidening elerated 31Policieshaveaimedtocushiontheeconomicandsocialimpactsofthepandemic-induceddownturn 33Outlook,RisksandPolicyConsiderations 36Short-termoutlook 36Risks 40Policyconsiderations 45AssessingtheDistributionalandLaborMarketImpactsofCOVID-19inChina 50Expecteddistributionalimpactsfor2020 52Government’smitigationmeasures 60Non-aryimpactsofCOVID-19 62Forwardlookingagenda 63References
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