南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文我国群体性事件预警指标体系构建及应用研究姓名:黄彬申请学位级别:硕士专业:行政管理指导教师:耿弘 2010-10 南京航空航天大学硕士论文 i 摘 要 在我国,群体性事件已成为当前影响社会稳定的突出问题。当前,我国社会正处于社会转型期,要素分化与结构整合之间难免会出现失衡与失调现象,从而使社会资源配置不均, 大量社会矛盾和非稳定因素得以产生,而且在今后一段时期可能还会增多。群体性事件一旦发生就可能会破坏正常的社会秩序,危害公共安全,所以它已经成为影响社会稳定的一个不可忽视的重要因素,成为各级党委、政府以及有关职能部门特别是专司维护社会治安秩序、保障社会安全的公安机关必须认真研究和正确处置的现实问题。本文通过对社会转型与群体性事件之间内在的关系做深刻的分析, 对群体性事件的发生机理进行研究,并选择典型的群体性事件进行实际调查研究,分析我国危机管理中出现的问题,研究从群体性事件到公共危机逻辑研究的过程,进而建立群体性事件的社会预警机制, 形成一套对公共危机的社会预警系统,构建了一套完整的群体性事件预警指标体系,并运用层次分析法和德尔菲法计算住该指标体系各指标的权重, 并通过查阅大量文献和专家沟通得到该指标体系评判标准的划分,以此构建相对完整的群体性事件预警指标体系。最后,本文使用基于白化权函数的灰色聚类分析方法对该指标体系进行分析,本文以某省 2008 年的相关数据为案例,对该指标体系进行实证研究,预测该省群体性事件在各个指标下可能发生群体性事件的可能性,并根据研究结果对该省群体性事件的预警工作提出建议。关键词: 群体性事件,公共危机,预警指标体系当前我国群体性事件预警指标体系构建及评估研究 ii ABSTRACT In China, the group incidents has currently e affect social stability of outstanding problems. At present, our country society is in social transition and the elements of the differentiation and integration between structure will inevitably be imbalances and disorder, thus make social resource allocation uneven, a lot of social contradictions and unsteady factors are created, and in a period ahead may also be increas ed. Masses event, if it happens, may disrupt the normal social order, thereby endangering public security, so it has e affect social stability of an unavoidable important factors, mittees and governments and relevant functional departments especially alongside main tain public order, social security of the public an must seriously study and proper di sposal of realistic problem. This article through to the social transition and the relationship between intrinsic masses event to make a deep analysis of group incidents happened to study the mechanism, and choose the typical model affairs for actual investigatio n and research, analyzes the crisis management problems, and studies the masses event to public cr isis logic research process, then to establish group incidents of social early warning mechanism, to form a set
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