郑州商品交易所白糖.doc.doc

郑州商品交易所白糖期货投资分析姓名:沈克宇学号:0840405113 专业:经济学目录 1白糖合约概述·····················································1 我国食糖的生产················································1 我国白糖生产的特点··········································2 食糖的种类···················································3 食糖的榨季··················································3 2基本分析··························································3 白糖价格的主要决定因素········································3 、食糖产销不稳定是造成价格波动的主要原因·········· ·3 糖料生产的波动是食糖市场波动的根本原因··········· 4 、国际市场的变化以及进口和走私对国内食糖市场的影响较大··· ·4 ·············································5 白糖的商品属性················································5 国内外糖价走势的关系··········································5 3技术分析图························································6 郑州白糖期货与 ICE 原糖期货价格走势对比图·····················7 郑州白糖期货与现货价格对比·················· 7 分时走势图·························· 8 K线图································ 趋势分析································· 、国际食糖供求过剩及宏观环境偏空压制糖市················ 、新榨季初期国内食糖现货大幅回调,拖累郑糖期价下行······· 、主流资金减多增空,打压期价·················· 技术面——加速调整势······························ 114总结································· 11 郑州商品交易所白糖期货投资分析 1白糖合约概述食糖是天然甜味剂,是人们日常生活的必需品,同时也是饮料、糖果、糕点等含糖食品和制药工业中不可或缺的原料。食糖生产的基本原料是甘蔗和甜菜, 甘蔗生长于热带和亚热带地区,甜菜生长于温带地区。我国甘蔗糖主产区主要集中在南方的广西、云南、广东湛江等地,甜菜糖主产区主要集中在北方的新疆、黑龙江、内蒙等地。尽管原料不同,但甘蔗糖和甜菜糖在品质上没有什么差别, 国家标准对两者同样适用。 我国食糖的生产糖厂利用甘蔗、甜菜榨取糖汁,经过沸腾浓缩,中心分离形成糖结晶,这种结晶称为原糖,呈浅棕色。原糖经过提炼后,成为日常消费的成品糖(如白砂糖、绵白糖等) 。国际上大多数发达国家制糖是采用“原糖——精糖”二步法的制糖生产方法,即“田间糖厂(产出半成品的原糖) + 精炼糖厂(产出精制糖) ”生产方式,先是生产原糖,然后再回溶生产精炼糖的方法。大部分糖厂生产原糖, 然后供给精炼糖厂进行精炼生产精炼糖,作为饮食用糖供应市场。我国糖厂几乎全部采用一步法生产,即糖厂通过甘蔗榨汁、沸腾浓缩、中心分离、提炼等工艺一次性直接生产出日常消费的白糖,所以我国食糖市场流通和消费的基本都是白糖,而国际贸易则以原糖为主。与二步法相比,我国一步法生产的一级白砂糖只相当国际耕地白糖的标准,质量相对较差,基本没有出口市场。 我国白糖生产有如下特点: 一是糖料与其它作物不同的是,收获后不能直接变成商品糖,必须经过工业化加工,因此白糖属于工业品。二是由于工业化加工需要较大的设备投入,糖价高且有充足的糖料时,加工能力的增加滞后;同样,糖价低或原料不足时,加工能力又不容易很快减下来, 因此,糖价格波动周期比一般农产品要长一些。三是 2002 年以来,北方的甜菜糖生产大幅萎缩后