气候变化对冷热相关死亡率的影 响.docx

Contents
Introduction 1
Understanding the temperature–mortality dose–response function 2
Variation across regions and populations 3
Estimating future adaptation to heat and cold 4
Challenges for comparing research results 5
Key components of an ideal temperature–mortality dose–response function 6
Key approaches 8
Epidemiological and economics approaches 8
Studies 10
Discussion and synthesis 19
Regional coverage 19
Net effects of climate change 20
Key studies with wide geographic coverage 23
Meta-analyses 23
Recent empirical studies 24
Discussion 26
Conclusion 28
References 29
Appendix A: How mortality is treated in Integrated Assessment Models 37
Introduction
As the Earth’s climate changes, shifts in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and other physical drivers have the potential to affect human health in a variety of ways, both positive and negative. Some of these effects occur indirectly, mediated through
pathways such as disease vectors, changes in agricultural productivity, or the potential for human conflict.
Along with these indirect effects, heat and cold contribute directly to human mortality. Such effects occur when an individual’s physiological response to heat or cold (., increased heart rate) endangers their well-being, particularly through cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory pathways (a recent review of reviews is presented in Song et al. 2017).
A large body of public health literature has examined the potential effects of a changing climate on human health and is reviewed in the 11th chapter from Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (Smith et al. 2014).1 A smaller but growing body of economics-based work has also examined the topic.
The purpose of this review is to examine the most recent economics and public health literature, with the goal of identifying which studies may be most appropriate to improve estimates of th