美国利率分析.doc

1 FEAR STALKS BIG ECONOMIES 美跌至历史低位 By Alan Beattie in London and Michael Mackenzie in New York 2008-11-21 Fears ofa severe recession gripped financial markets yesterday as dire unemployment figures from the US drove long-term interest rates down to record lows. Economic news across the world was almost uniformly bad, as slumping Japanese exports threatened to push the economy further into recession and the Swiss central bank unexpectedly slashed interest rates bya full percentage point in response to the slowdown. In China, officials warned that the employment outlook was ing “ grim ”, as the global financial crisis led to more factory closures in the export sector. 2 Two-year US interest rates slid below 1 per cent to their lowest levels yet amid a gathering conviction that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates again next month. UK bond yields dropped to their lowest since the second world war. “ This is all about disinflation and deflation, ” said Alan Ruskin, a strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital. “ Rates can go low and stay low for a protracted period. ” On top of Wednesday's announcement ofa record one-month fall in the US consumer price index, the rising risk ofa damaging deflationary crunch also sparked a general sell-off in equities and pushed oil prices below $50 a barrel for the first time since 2005, amid signs of fracture in the Opec oil cartel. Offic