针对bootstrap数据仿真方法的fdi及陕西经济增长关系的分析研究.pdf

摘要在经济全球化不断深入的背景下,FDI已成为拉动各国经济增长的重要动力之一。我国是最大的发展中国家,拥有占世界五分之~的人口和广阔的市场,我国政府也制定了一整套吸引FDI的优惠政策,因此无论国际经济环境如何变化,全球FDI总流量怎样波动,我国都以其巨大的市场潜力及日益改善的软硬投资环境,对FDI产生巨大的吸引力,保证其总量的稳步增长。陕西省位于我国西北地区,其积极响应国家多层次、全方位的引资政策,制定了符合自己省情的配套措施,加大了FDI的引进力度及对其投资的导向作用。因此,本论文旨在深入研究FDI在陕西的发展状况,探讨FDI是如何影响陕西经济增长,为今后陕西政府招商引资提供更稳健的实证支持。本文首先评述了外商直接投资理论、经济增长理论及FDI对经济增长影响的相关理论,利用陕西1985—2008年的相关统计资料,从引进FDI的规模、地区、行业、投资方式、来源国等方面分析陕西省FDI的现状和结构特征,之后介绍FDI对就业、国内投资、出口贸易、财政等如何发生作用。同时,考虑到搜集数据的小样本性,本文还利用 Bootstrap数据仿真方法对FDI与就业、国内投资、财政收入、出口贸易等进行了格兰杰因果关系检验及脉冲响应函数的计量分析,系统地分析陕西省吸引FDI的实际经济效果。最后本文针对实证检验结果对陕西省如何高质量、科学地利用FDI提出相关意见和建议。关键词:FDI,经济增长,Bootstrap数据仿真,格兰杰因果关系检验 The Rsearch ofRelationship between FDI andEconomic Growth of Shaanxi···-ABootstrap·-based Simulation Data Processing Abstract AgmnSt the backdrop ofgrowing economic globalization,FDI has e amain driving forcefor economic growth ,as thelargestdeveloping country, holds one fifthofthe world’S population and boasts broad government has constitued a series offavorable policies to attract ,however changes the intemational economic environment,and however fluctuates theFDI amount,China firmly relies on her huge potential marketanddaily improving investment environment to ensure FDI province,lying inthenorthwest ofChina,has been activeindeveloping an omni—directional andmulti-levelformofpolicy forabsorbing FDI,it has created various matched measures which areconformed totheactualconditions,and triesharder toproduce significantguidance effect ,the thesisis tostudy thedevelopment ofFDI in Shaanxi province,then toexplore how FDI affecttheeconomic growth ofShaanxi,and to provide more robustempirical evidence. By reviewing relativetheory ofFDI,economic growth theory and SO on,this paper consults related statisticaldatainShaanxi from 985 to2008,and analyzes from thescale, area,industry,major investment mode,countries oforiginand SO on theauthor introduces how FDI acts toemployment,domestic inv