管理者过度自信与企业过度投资行为研究.pdf

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investment-cash flow sensitivity and
investment efficiency.
This paper makes an analysis about corporation performance prediction, and then this paper uses
the outcome to measure the degree of the managerial overconfidence and over-pessimism, and makes
an analysis about the distribution. Based on these measurements, this paper studies the relationship
between managerial overconfidence and over-pessimism in Chinese listed companies and corporation
investment decision through theoretical and empirical analysis.
By empirical study we found the following conclusions. First, when the degree of overconfidence
increases, investment managers a good investment opportunity was not seized, but more and more
serious departure from these potential investment opportunities. Second, the degree of overconfidence
in this paper is not a direct positive role in corporate over-investment. The degree of overconfidence
has a positive effect on the investment expenditure-cash flow. Third, to against the over-investment
behavior of enterprises led by overconfidence，western scholars put control mechanisms forward by
non-traditional way - additional debt, the cash dividend policy and the policy of independent directors
and found that only additional debt can restrain this over-investment problem result by
over-confidence in China.
Keywords: Behavioral corporate finance, Overconfidence, Investment cash flow sensitivity ，
control mechanisms of over-investment

II南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文
图表清单

图 技术路线图..........................................................................................................................5
图 过度自信样本统计性描述.................................................................................