论文(海南旅游业).docx

湖北文理学院理工学院本科毕业(设计)论文海南旅游业发展的效应及影响因素分析院系名称:经济与管理系专业: 学生姓名: 学号: 指导老师: 2015 年月 15日摘要 1 旅游业素有“永远的朝阳产业”的美称。自海南建立经济特区以来,其旅游业发展迅速已然成为海南最具特色、最具潜力和竞争力的产业之一。为了更全面地研究海南旅游业发展问题, 本文将主要从带动效应与影响因素两个角度进行研究,在分析旅游业对海南经济发展带动作用的基础上,进一步分析影响旅游业发展的关键因素。关键词:产业、旅游业发展、带动效应、影响因素 Abstract: Tourism is known as "the forever sunrise industry" laudatory name. Since the establishment of the special economic zones in ainan the development of tourism industry quickly has already e the most characteristic of hainan , one of the most potential petitiveness of the industry. For a prehensive study of the development of tourism in Hainan, this paper will also drive effect and influence factors of two angles from the research, on the basis of analysis of the tourism industry of Hainan's economic development role in promoting, further analysis of the key factors affecting the development of tourism industry. Key words: industry, tourism development, driving effect, influencing factors .目录 2 一、海南旅游业发展现状.......................................................1 二、旅游研究意义以及国内相关研究成果 1、旅游的概念及旅游业的概念..............................................5 2、旅游业在经济、社会发展中的作用..................................6 3、研究成果.............................................................................8 三、灰色关联模型分析各市县旅游业发展与经济发展的关联度1 、灰色关联判别分析模型...............................................9 2 、结果分析.......................................................................9 四、旅游业对经济发展的带动效应分析............................10 五、参数估计与诊断检验(误差修正模型分析) 1 、变量的选取.................................................................12 2 、参数估计与诊断检验.................................................13 3 、误差修正模型.............................................................14 六、预测判读.........................................................................15 七、对策建议.........................................................................16 八、分析与总结.....................................................................18 九、参考文献................................................