中国银行业报告.pdf

Hong Kong / China

Industry Focus
DBS Group Research . Equity 19 December 2007
NEUTRAL HSI: 26,733
(Downgrade from Overweight) China Banking

ANALYST Rising macroeconomic and policy risks
Jasmine Lai · (852) 2971 1926 ·
jasmine_******@hk.
We have turned more cautious amid the recent shift in
China’s ary policy stance to a tightening bias and
Sophia Huo · (852) 2820 4677 ·
sophia_******@hk. deepening of US economic slowdown. Deposit rates may rise
more than lending rates in order to lessen negative real deposit
rate. A tight lid will be placed on the property sector.
CHINA BANKING SECTOR
New Old %
Small banks’ share prices will be de-rated more than the big
Target Target m- Upside three banks, given that: 1) they may need to slow down their
Close Price Price endation loan growth more and 2) they are trading at more demanding
(HK$) (HK$) (HK$) (%) valuations.
ICBC
BUY 12%
Our sector’s earnings were cut by 7%, 13% and 16% for
(1398)
BOC 2007-09 respectively. We have factored in lower NIM, lower
BUY 14%
(3988) loan growth, lower market-related fee and higher provision.
CCB (939) BUY 14% Rising macroeconomic and policy risks and slower earnings
m
HOLD (from BUY) -6% growth warrant a sector de-rating. CMB is downgraded to SELL
(3328) while m CB to HOLD.
CMB
SELL (from BUY) -17%
(3968) Tight ary bias. The unexpected hike of in required deposit reserve ratio
CNCB (RRR) by 1 ppt. on 8 Dec-07, together with the recent change in ary policy
HOLD (from BUY) 7%
(998) to “tight” bias from “modative” bias have led us to turn more cautious

towards the sector. In order to lessen negative real interest rate, the hikes in
deposit rate may be more than those of lending rates and saving deposit rate may
also be raised going forward. Moreover, the buoyant stock market in 9M07 has
helped lower fundi