摩根士丹利-中国流动性过剩之战略透视.pdf

M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
August 13, 2007
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Research Unconventional Liquidity – Ways In, Ways Out,
Asia/Pacific and Opportunities Jerry Lou
@
A Strategic Perspective on China’s +852 2848-6511
Dealing with Massive Money Flow
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
August 13, 2007
China Equities Strategy
Agenda
• Ways In:
– Triple engines pumping liquidity in: trade surplus, FDI and speculation;
– Inflexibility of money dealing structure: forex control, financial asset
shortage and tight land supply;
– Limitations of ary policy to cope with structural flood of money;
– Symptoms of overheating: high-flying asset prices, excessive
speculation and runaway investment.
• Ways Out:
– Private outbound financial investment: QDII;
– Government outbound financial investment: SIC;
– Government-driven FDI;
– Input cost rationalization;
– Forex deregulation.
• Opportunities:
– QDII: What’s the arbitrage?;
– SIC: Re-rating of “strategic assets”;
– Cost rationalization: Raising hopes for refiners and IPPs.
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