模拟模型中的决策建模.ppt

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James Moffat (Senior Fellow, Dstl, UK)
Abstract
NEC: Network Enabled Capability (Digitisation of the Battlespace)
Core: an understanding of how better information and a better approach to Command and Control lead to both better decisions and improved execution or operations .
Research on this subject:
A conceptual understanding of and improved approaches to C2
Quantified Operational Analysis (OA)models
A new approach to the Representation of C2, based on the understanding from Complexity Theory.
Deliberate and Rapid Planning processes
A new generation of simulation models
Validation of the models with experimental data
Assess the ability to understand and model network-centric approaches to C2
Cybernetics: the science of control and communication in the animal and in the machine
variety
Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety:
the variety of the controller must balance the variety of the system
The Industrial Age
The Information Age
Need to construct a representation of the human command and decision-making process which gives rise to high variety
Deliberate Planning
Rapid Planning
RP & DP
Rapid Planning : react fast to local circumstances, constrained by more strategic Deliberate Planning in order to produce the requisite variety of command
Deliberate Planning: represents decision-making based on a rational choice among alternatives.
01
02
The highest maturity level for the employed force
Corresponds to the Industrial Age C2
Building the simulation model set
RP, a feedback process in cybernetic terms, based on the psychological construct of naturalistic decision-making .
DP , a feedforward process in cybernetic terms, in which the emphasis is on the explict generation, and subsequent evaluation, of alternative courses of action.
(mathematical algorithms to implement these two approches to human decision-making are described in Moffat 2002)