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2013 美国大学生数学建模竞赛 ICM c题论文.doc


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Build Sustainable Water Resource
Abstract
As a disturbing issue, water scarcity will be a great obstacle for development in many countries. Especially in Egypt, which will have a total water demand of over 100BCM and only 55BCM could be satisfied by the Nile, finding new water resource and implementing efficient water management are no doubt urgent issues. In all, we will have 4 models to help solve the water problem in Egypt.
Model 1 concerns with the national and regional water demand of Egypt in 2025. Because of the consumption oriented water policy, Egypt still has a large amount of water wastage. One strategy for better water conservation is to switch gradually to supply oriented policy, hence accurately estimated national and regional water demand data are required. In the national water demand estimation process, we adopt Double Exponent Smoothness Method to predict the population and a “per capita consumption” Model to calculate demand. In the governorate water demand estimation, an agriculture coefficient is added to determine the future demand.
Model 2 focuses on water allocation. Although the water supply of the Nile is limited, water demand increases sharply. Therefore, we select the desalinization method to satisfy the overwhelmed water demand in 2025. And a water supply management, which is targeted at make full use of the Nile and minimize the transportation cost, should be implemented. In this model, we set some criteria and adopt a Minimal Spanning Tree Method to clarify the best water allocation plan. The best plan will clarify whether a governorate will be supplied by the Nile or desalinization, and those governorates which have to use desalinized water should begin to make preparation for water future water storage and transportation.
Model 3 solves the problem of water movement. In order to make governorates getting desalinized water transfer city should be selected for less plant or storage cost (scale economy) cost and furthermore the opt

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  • 页数34
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  • 时间2018-11-24
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