中国煤变油市场研究.pdf

10 July 2006
Asian Daily

Asian Oil and Gas Sector---------------------------------------------- Maintain MARKET WEIGHT
Coal to oil: Potentially 1 mn bbl a day between 2010 and 2013
Prashant Gokhale / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6944 / prashant.******@credit-
Edwin Pang / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6406 / edwin.******@credit-
Horace Tse / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7379 / horace.******@credit-
● In her recently published report Coal to Oil – a clean and bright change demand patterns (smaller, more fuel-efficient cars, use of
future, Credit Suisse mining analyst Trina Chen highlights the LNG, etc.).
massive pipeline of coal to oil plants in China, and the positive
6) We remain cautious on the oil sector in Asia, given that we are on
implications for coal prices.
the cusp of supply growing faster than demand (2H06). We
● In this report, we take a quick glance at the implications for the oil maintain our UNDERPERFORM rating on PetroChina and PTTEP.
market. Incremental oil supply is material beyond 2009, with We OOC in China. We rate Medco and SK Corp as
1 mn bd of new capacity over five years, adding about 15-25% to OUTPERFORM.
non-OPEC’s annual run rate of - mn bd. The greatest
impact is in 2010-11, with mn bd in each year. Figure 1: Coal to oil – capacity build-out
● Assuming that China’s oil demand grows by about 7% p.