中国菲利普斯曲线毕业论文.doc

毕业论文
学院国际经济贸易学院
班级 081国际商务0班
学号 200829016
姓名 XXX
题目改革开放以来中国的菲利普斯曲线
指导教师徐德云教授
(姓名及职称)
中国的菲利普斯曲线
The Phillips Curve in China
国际经济贸易学院国际商务2008(0)班XXX 200829016
指导老师:徐德云教授
内容摘要:1958年,菲利普斯根据英国1867-1957年间失业率和货币工资变动率的经验统计资料,提出了一条用以表示失业率和货币工资变动率之间交替关系的曲线。本文通过从1979-2008年的数据对菲利普斯曲线做出验证,发现菲利普斯曲线在中国存在。然后对中国的菲利普斯曲线形状进行分析,并对产生原因进行解释说明。基于中国国情的菲利普斯曲线分析,可以得出,在中国,要想调整通货膨胀和失业之间的关系,作为调控者的政府要加大宏观调控的力度,把好预期这一关,不能盲目让物价过高,而且为了保持宏观经济的稳定,应运用不同的政策进行协调配合,实行综合治理的对策。另外,对于其他影响通货膨胀和失业率之间关系的因素,本文并未一一阐述。
关键词:中国;通货膨胀;失业率;菲利普斯曲线
Abstract: In 1958, according to the experience statistics of the unemployment rate and the change rate of currency wage from 1867 to 1957 in British, Phillips put forward a curve which is used to represent the relationship between the unemployment rate and the change rate of currency wage. This paper is to check the Phillips curve which is based on the data from 1979 to 2011, and found that Phillips curve there in China. Then analyse the different shape of the Phillips curve in China, and explain the causes of the Phillips curve. The analysis based on the Chinese national condition, we can draw the conclusion that in China, if the government want to adjust the relationship between the inflation and the unemployment, as a regulator, the government should to strengthen the strength of microeconomic control, and know how to control the expectation, not to let the prices too high, and in order to keep the stability of the macroeconomic, the government should use different policy to coordination, carry out prehensive measures. Besides, there are so many other factors can affect the relationship between the inflation and unemployment rate, but this paper did not concern.
Key words: China, Inflation, unemployment Rate, Phillips Curve
目录
一、导言 1
二、基础理论概述 2
(一)菲利普斯曲线的发展 2
(二)理论模型 3
三、菲利普斯曲线在中国的验证 3
四、中国菲利普斯曲线的态势及成因 4
(一)中国的菲利普斯曲线的形状 4
(二)成因分析 5
(三)基本结论和启示 6
五、结束语 8
(一)政策建议 8
(二)文中存在的不足 9
参考文献 10
附表 12
一、导言
菲利普斯曲线虽然是根据英国的经验所作出的模型,但它的意义在于不仅指出了失业率与货币工资率的关