新兴市场-股票策略-新兴市场前沿股票策略.docx

By:JohnLomax,FranciscoSchumacher,DevendraJoshiandHeraldvanderLindeFrontierEmergingMarketsEquityStrategyOil-pricestickinesspersistsPerformanceofFEMmarketsremainshighlydependentonoilpricesPaceofgovernmenteffortstodiversifyoil-focusedeconomiesisslowingValuationshavecorrectedsharplybutearningsgrowthandROEsremainweakDisclosures&Disclaimer:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer, 2StrategyDashboards paniesinfrontieremergingmarkets 19CountryPages 23Argentina(positive) 24Bangladesh(positive) 27Egypt(positive) 30Kazakhstan(positive) 33Kuwait(positive) 35Nigeria(positive) 37Peru(positive) 40Vietnam(positive) 42SaudiArabia(off-benchmark) 45Colombia(negative) 47Kenya(negative) o(negative) 51Oman(negative) 53Pakistan(negative) 55ThePhilippines(neutral) 57SriLanka(neutral) 59Disclosureappendix 61Disclaimer 64InvestmentstrategyPerformanceofFEMmarketsremainshighlydependentontheoilpriceInlightoftheloweroilpriceenvironmentwehavecutourbenchmarkexposuretothefrontiermarketsinourGEMsportfolioLowervaluationsarejustifiedduetoweakearningsgrowthandROEJohnLomax*@+442079923712AseemMadan*AssociateBangaloreEmployedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsMarketoutlookOilcontinuestobeakeydriverofFEMmarketswhichincludesomeoftheworld’(9January2019)wecutouroff-,HSBChaslowereditsoilpriceassumptionsfor2019eand2020etoUSD64/bfromUSD80/b,andtoUSD70/bfromUSD85/b,respectively(see:Rangebound:utmeetsUSshaleglut,GordonGrayetal,13January2019).Withtheoilpricehavingfallen,ouroutlookforoil-,althoughlesssothanwewerebefore,onKuwait,SaudiArabia,NigeriaandKa