普通高校贷款风险控制模型得研究.pdf

摘要
摘要
“银校合作”在我国发展已十年有余,存量巨大的银行贷款在推动我国高等教育
超常规发展,为众多高校带来扩张活力的同时,由于对贷款安全阀值缺乏理论指导与
科学认识,现阶段我国普通高校整体上存在着由巨额贷款所引发的财务风险。
本文首先对近十年该领域研究文献系统梳理,尝试以不同理论基础为标准将其分
为四类,分析与评价了各个类别研究的特点与不足。其次,以高校贷款起源和高校贷
款资金的特征为切入点,力求勾勒出高校贷款问题全貌与高校贷款资金的运动特征。
在实例分析部分,对教育部与财政部使用的高校贷款风险识别与预警模型进行基本阐
述,并评价其运行结果,认为在非限定性净收入增长率预测的具体方法及对于折现期
的有效性的确定等方面有待改进。针对此模型的主要不足探索改进的方法,进而以地
方某高校近年相关财务数据为来源,在教育部与财政部模型的基础上构建基于现金流
量的改进的高校贷款额度控制模型,以期增强模型适用性与准确性。最后针对以上介
绍分析,对高校贷款额度的规模控制提出了短期与长期政策建议。
基于上述研究,本文得到如下结论:第一,目前关于高校贷款模型的研究存在不
完善之处,实证数据的匮乏制约了研究发展的进度;第二,对高校贷款资金运动特征
的分析表明,以现金流量为视角的研究对高校贷款研究有较强的适用性;第三,教育
部与财政部模型具有相对较高的代表性与说服力,可以作为进一步研究的基础;第四,
基于现金流量原理构建高校贷款额度控制模型,并应用模型对某高校财务数据进行了
实例分析,结果证明该模型科学有效。
关键词:高校贷款现金流量风险控制
I
万方数据
Abstract
Abstract
"Bank College Cooperation" has been developed more than ten years in China. The
huge stock of bank loans provided the promotion of the extraordinary development of
higher education, and the energy of the expansion for many colleges and universities.
While because of the lack of theoretical guidance and scientific thoery on the safety
threshoild of loans, colleges and universities in China at this stage have the financial risks
arising.
Firstly, this paper tries to divide the literatures relating on the field into four
categories, giving analysis and evaluation of the characteristics of each type of study.
Secondly, as a starting point, we used the reasonsand movement haracters of university
loan to give the outline of the the case study part, the model of university loan of
the Ministry of Education and the Ministry has been introducted, and its operating result
has been pointed out the model existed some weaknesses, such as the
specific method of e in non-restrictive and the effective period of
cash-flow discounting, and exploring a way to improve the using a
university’s financial dates as a example, building a new model based on cash-flow theory
to improve the applicab