基于SD的滨海新区水资源承载力研究.pdf

河北工业大学
硕士学位论文
基于SD的滨海新区水资源承载力研究
姓名:魏素芳
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:管理科学与工程
指导教师:李万庆
20100101
河北工业大学硕士学位论文

基于 SD 的滨海新区水资源承载力研究

摘要

水资源短缺已经成为世界性问题,加上我国的人口基数大等基本国情,使我国水资源
供需矛盾更加突出。如何在水资源短缺的情况下,使社会经济可持续发展、各系统和谐发
展已经成为各国特别是我国亟需解决的问题。滨海新区是全国综合配套改革试验区,其供
水以外调水为主,水资源短缺已经阻碍了滨海新区的发展。所以研究滨海新区的水资源承
载力,对实现滨海新区的可持续发展有重要意义。
本文从前人对水资源承载力的研究中分析总结了水资源承载力的内涵,两类评价指标
体系以及众多研究方法的优缺点;从自然环境、社会经济等方面介绍了滨海新区概况,在
总结历史数据的基础上总结了滨海新区的水资源和水环境特征,为研究奠定依据;对系统
动力学从其定义和主要观点、发展历程、解决问题的步骤研究后,进行了系统动力学应用
于水资源承载力研究的适应性分析;而后利用水资源承载力理论,运用系统动力学这一工
具,建立滨海新区水资源承载力系统动力学模型,并设计四种方案,模拟滨海新区水资源
承载力,最后提出滨海新区必须以节水为基础,治污为主要手段,外加雨水的利用和全流
域水环境综合整治来提高水资源承载力。


关键词:水资源承载力,滨海新区,系统动力学







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基于 SD 的滨海新区水资源承载力研究

STUDY OF WATER RESOURCES CARRYING CAPACITY
BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
IN BINHAI NEW AREA



ABSTRACT

The water shortage has e a worldwide problem,plus the large population as China's
basic conditions, the contradiction between supply and demand of water in China is more
outstanding. How to achieve the sustainable development of social and economy and arrive
harmonious between every system has e the world especially China’s the problem to be
solved. The binhai new area is the national synthetically reform testing district,and water from
other palce is the main source of binhai new water shortage has hindered the
development of binhai new studying on the water resources carrying capacity of the
binhai new area has an important significance to achieve the sustainable development of binhai
new area.
This thesis analysized and summarized the connotation of the water resources carrying
capacity, advantages and disadvantages of two kinds of evaluation index system, advantages and
disadvantages numerous research methods of water resources carrying capacity. This thesis
introduced the general situation from natural environment, economic, society etl. Based on the
data of binhai new area, the article summari