垃圾电厂投资研究分析.pdf

A Dissertation Submitted to Shanghai Jiao Tong University for Master Degree of Engineering ANALYSIS AND STUSY OF TRASH POWER PLANT INVESTMENT Author: Chen HaiboSpecialty: Electronics munication Engineering Advisor Ⅰ: Wang JieAdvisor Ⅱ: Jiao XianFengElectronics munication EngineeringShanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai, August 18, 2007 垃圾电厂投资分析研究摘要垃圾处理以“无害化、减量化、资源化”为目标,本文对常见的四种垃圾处理技术做了详细比较,介绍了我国现行政策和相关风险,对进入该行业做出风险评估,并提出对策。焚烧发电技术是比较完善的垃圾处理与资源综合利用方法,制约我国垃圾发电技术推广应用的主要因素是建设费用较高、垃圾低位热值低、政策影响大。垃圾发电企业的盈利方式概括为:发电收入+政府补贴。对常见的四种建厂模式进行分析,提出企业应根据当地的技术水平、经济实力以及实际需要来选择最适合的建厂模式。根据不同的建厂投资模式,介绍《京都协定书》对我国的影响及机遇,定性分析了以清洁发展机制(CDM)方式融资可以获得先进的技术和急需的资金,企业收益和发展潜力最大,是以垃圾填埋气(甲烷)燃烧方式发电时的最佳选择。最后用层次分析法对垃圾电厂项目的经济性、社会效益及促进产业进步各方面进行了定量计算分析,为企业代替政府投资、进军垃圾焚烧发电产业的可行性和推行该项目的重要性提供充分的理论依据。关键词:垃圾处理技术,CDM,BOT,层次分析法,投资分析 ANALYSIS AND STUSY OF TRASH POWER PLANT INVESTMENT ABSTRACT Garbage disposal takes “Reduction,Reuse and Recycle” as the goal, this article has made the parison among mon four kinds of garbage disposal technology, introducing our country present policies and the related risk. It assesses the risk of entering this profession, and proposes the policy. The burning down electricity generation technology is the quite perfect garbage disposal and the prehensive utilization method, which restricts our country trash electricity generation technology’s primary factor for promoting application is the high expense for construstion, trash low position calorific value lowly, great affection of policy. The profit way of trash electricity generation enterprises can be summarized as: Electricity generation e + government subsidy. To analyse the four model of constructing factory, the enterprise should choose the suitable model of constructing factory according to the local technical level, the economic potentiality as well as the actual need. According to the different investment patterns, it introduces "the Kyoto Memorandum of agreement"’s influence and opportunity to our country, it is ne