nothing as practical as a good theory’ - dcu home.ppt

‘Nothing as Practical as a Good Theory’RAY .******@ Talk’s TasksSome new roles for theory in evidence based policy?Systematic Review?Knowledge Transfer?Dealing plexityProgrammes are ‘theories’‘Dishy-David-Beckham-theory’‘Interviewer: But do you think the fact that these good-looking blokes are footballers has any effect on girls' attitude to playing football?Girl: No, I think it has more effect on them watching football, well not the football - the guys (general laughter and agreement)’. Rival approaches to systematic reviewMeta-analysisNarrative reviewsHybrid reviewsTHEORYDRIVEN REVIEWSn’s Law - Programme TheorySTEP ONEProblem IdentificationIdentify high-risk released sex offenders and create valid and reliable registersSTEP TWOPublic disclosureIssue bulletins, press releases, call meeting to identify released offenders to munitySTEP THREESanction munity joins with police and probation to increase surveillance of suspicious behaviourSTEP FOUROffender munity actions shame offenders and decrease opportunity of further offenceEvidence fragment one: could the law have made a difference? - a ‘prospective simulation’Petrosino & Petrosino136serious sex offences36previous offence12 stranger predatory offences6could potentially respond munity notification100 no previous offence24known to victim6offender from out of stateEvidence fragment two: did the law effect recidivism? A matched trialPre-intervention sample sex recidivism 22%Post-intervention sample sex recidivism 19%Pre-intervention sample arrest slowPost- intervention sample arrest significantly quickerSchram & MilloyEvidence fragment three: how did practitioners respond? Office talk“The Law is an unfunded mandate”“Special Bulletin Notification added more work to already over-worked agents”“There is more pressure to baby sit with SBN cases simply because they are SBN cases”Zevitz and FarkasMegan’s Law - an emerging theory?Opportunity