TABLEOFCONTENTSExecutivesummary 1Fromslowdowntolockdown 3Acoolingpaceofgrowthmovinginto2020 3Evolutionofapandemic 3Figure1–COVID-19confirmedcasesbycountry 3Figure2–Infectionratesacrossglobalregions 4CurtailingthespreadtakesaheavytollinChina 4Figure3–ImpactofrestrictionsonChina’seconomy 5LockdownsspreadacrossAsiaandtheworld 5Table1-MeasuresimposedinAPACregion 6Fromlocalizedoutbreaktoglobalrecession 7Initialimpacts–China’sextendedshutdown 7Figure4–Coalconsumptionat6Chinesepowerproducers 7ImpactsfeltinAsia–tourismandsupplychain 8Figure5–upancyratesbyworldregion 8Figure6–SupplychainrelianceonChina 9APACLockdown positionofSingapore’sconsumerbasket 10Pandemicpushesworldintorecession 10Astrongreboundin2021? 12HowshouldeconomicpolicyrespondtoCovid-19? 12Whatwilltherecoverylooklike? 14Ordeeperdownturnanddelayedrecovery? 17Worldeconomyfacesbiggestcontractiononrecord 17Figure13–WorldGDPgrowthin2020indownsidescenario 17Greatereconomicscarringmeansaslowerrecovery 18Figure14–GDPgrowthindeeperdownturnanddelayedrecovery 18Conclusions 19EXECUTIVESUMMARYCOVID-,suchasatradewarorafinancialcrisisbroughtaboutbyhighdebt,areincreasinglywell-understood,theoutbreakofCOVID--19hasevolvedfromanAsia-,whentheoutbreakwaslargelycontainedtoAsia,%.China’slockdownmeasuresthroughFebruaryandMarchtookanincreasinglyheavytollontheeconomythough,,lockdownsandrestrictionstotravelnowmeanthefirstquarter
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