房地产市场成熟度评价模型研究.pdf

上海交通大学
硕士学位论文
房地产市场成熟度评价模型研究
姓名:俞海海
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:技术经济及管理
指导教师:屠梅曾
20080101
上海交通大学硕士论文
房地产市场成熟度评价模型研究

摘要

本文通过对我国房地产业发展历史和现状的分析,指出如何对当
前房地产市场进行准确评价对整个房地产业健康发展具有重要意义。
首先,根据房地产开发周期理论、经济周期理论和市场供需分析、
竞争结构分析,结合项目管理成熟度模型的定义和应用,提出建立适
合我国实际国情的房地产市场成熟度评价模型。
其次,在对房地产市场进行理论分析基础上将房地产市场成熟度
评价细分为土地、金融、开发、消费四个子市场的评价,同时对国内
现有各种指标体系进行比较分析,并结合房地产市场成熟度评价体系
目的和指标选取原则初步确定评价体系的指标,然后以上海市为实证
对象,选取行业数据进行相关性分析精简指标后确定最终评价指标。
再次,通过因子分析法确定各指标的权重,并运用 3 δ理论与经
验分析相结合的方法确定上海房地产市场成熟度评价的标准,由此构
建了上海市房地产市场成熟度评价模型。
最后,运用成熟度模型对上海房地产市场进行评价,得出上海房
地产市场目前属于新兴加转轨型市场的结论,并指出其发展过程中存
在的问题,由此提出相应的对策建议。文章最后对上海市房地产市场
成熟度评价模型进行总结,指出其不足之处以及改进的设想和展望。

关键词:上海,房地产市场,成熟度模型
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上海交通大学硕士论文
RESEARCH ON REAL ESTATE MARKET
MATURITY APPRAISAL MODEL



ABSTRACT


Based on the analysis towards the development and status of China’s
real estate industry, the paper tends to point out that how to appraise the
real estate market properly can be of great significance to the entire real
estate industry develop healthily.
First of all, according to the theory of real estate development cycle
and economy cycle, and supply and demand analysis as well as strategy
structure analysis, together with the definition and application of project
management maturity model, the real estate maturity model fitting for the
situation of our country is advanced.
Next, the real estate maturity appraisal is separated into four
sub-appraisals: land, finance, develop, consumption. Based on the existed
index parisons, the target of the real estate maturity appraisal
system and the principle of index selecting, the primary index system is
established. Then the paper chooses Shanghai city as the demonstration
by data correlation analysis which finally determines the appraisal index
system.
Then, while factor analysis determines the weights of indexes, the
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上海交通大学硕士论文
application of three- δ theory and experimental analysis decides the
criterion, hence