农村客运系统发展规划的研究.pdf

Research on the development planning of rural passenger transport system A Dissertation Submitted for the Degree of Master Candidate:Liu Yali Supervisor:Prof. Chen Kuanmin Chang’an University, Xi’an, China I 摘要农村经济的发展、农村剩余劳动力的转移、农村居民出行需求的快速增加、农村公路里程和密度的不断增加、国家相关政策的支持以及农村客运系统现状存在的诸多问题,都需要科学合理地规划农村客运系统的发展。同时,由于对农村客运系统规划方面的研究较少,有必要对农村客运系统规划理论进行完善和补充。首先,本文分析了当前发展农村客运系统的必然性和实际意义,总结了国内外农村客运系统的研究现状,提出了本文的研究内容和技术路线。其次,本文分析了农村客流出行的特点以及农村客流的时间分布特征和空间分布特征,研究了农村客运量需求预测的定量和定性方法,采用三元线性回归方法对农村客运量进行预测,并在此基础上预测农村客运适站量。再次,本文提出了确定农村客运站场规模和等级的方法,首末站和中途停靠站选址的方法。介绍了农村客运线网的四种模式以及业界推崇使用的模式、线路划分的类型,并运用最小树方法进行线网布局;分析了线路的换乘模式和衔接模式;运用运力配置模型计算客运线路的配车数,并举例应用,分析了农村客运车辆的选型,并结合客流的出行特点提出针对不同情况的行车组织安排和发车方式。最后,以甘泉县的历史现状数据为基础,分别从客流预测、客运站布局规划、线网规划以及运力配置和行车组织四个方面对甘泉县农村客运系统进行了实例论证分析。关键字:农村客运,客运量预测,客运站布局,线网布设,运力配置 III Abstract The developmentof rural economy, the transfer of rural surplus labor, the rapid increase of rural resident traveldemand, rural road mileage and density increasing, the relevant national policy support, andmany problemsthatstatus quo of rural passenger transport system exists, because of these ,development of rural passenger transport system needs to be scientifically planed. Meanwhile, because of rural passenger transport system planning research less, it is necessary plementary and perfect the rural passenger transport system planning theory. First of all,the necessity and practical significance to developrural passenger transport systemwas analyzedin this domestic and foreign research status quo of rural passenger transport systemwas summarized, the research contents and technical route was proposed in this paper,. Secondly, the characteristics of rural passenger travel and time distribution characteristics and spatial distribution characteristics of rural passenger flowwere analyliesd, the rural passenger demand forecasting of quantitative and qualitative methodswere studied, ternary linear regre