China’s health-care sector continues to develop at an astonishing rate: spending is projected to grow from $357 billion in 2011 to $1 trillion in 2020. From pharmaceuticals to medical products to consumer health, China remains among the world’s most attractive markets, and by far the fastest-growing of all the large emerging ones. It is not surprising that multinationals are flocking to take advantage of the opportunities, but long-term success is by no means assured. Although we remain optimistic about the overall outlook for China’s health-care market, multinationals will find it harder to compete. We expect a clearer separation between winners and laggards. Late entrants may struggle.
Three themes will shape China’s health-care market: the continuation of economic and demographic trends, further health-care reform, and the policies articulated in the government’s 12th five-year plan. Some of these forces—such as improvements in infrastructure, the broadening of insurance coverage, and significant support for innovation—will have positive implications for multinational companies. Others—for example, pressure on pricing and the rise of local champions—will have negative implications. In certain respects (including the bid to reconcile low-cost universal health-care coverage with rewards for innovation) the forces come into direct opposition. To paraphrase Vice Premier Li Keq
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