水资源优化战略论文大学毕业论文.doc

水资源优化战略 The W ater Re sources O ptimization S trategy 摘要 Abstract 本文就水资源战略问题从水资源的调配、储存、脱盐及保护四方面进行分析。利用模糊聚类对水资源盈缺现状进行分区并根据源数据对中国 29 个省市建立回归预测模型,筛选出严重缺少水资源区域并对其进行分析以达到模型简化。本文得到北京、天津、河北、宁夏、江苏和上海六省到 2025 年持续处于缺水状态。这样,本文就以河北省为例对水资源战略部署,以周边地区为供水源进行求解。 This article mainly analyzes water resources allocation, storage, desalination and protection from the strategic problems of water resources . According to the source data , regression prediction model s of 29 provinces and cities in China are establish ed and partitions oft he present situation of water resources are made according tof uzzy clustering, and then screen out area s lack of water se verely and carries on the analysis to achieve simplified model. 就水资源储存问题通过建立蜂窝模型在供水源地区建立水库,本文得到当其形状为六边形时模型最优,并解释了最少建立五层时( 27个水库)可以将供水源地区完全覆盖。引入多目标规划模型对省际间水资源调配进行最优化处理,使其综合造价达到最低。并且考虑到区域内水分配问题对模型进行补充,从两方面对文章低成本要求作出回应。以天津市为例从海水淡化工程及工业废水治理两方面对脱盐及保护问题进行讨论。根据统计学理论,利用 SPSS 对海水淡化年产量进行回归预测,可知 202 5 年可补充 21425 吨淡水。对照天津市缺水的年平均水平得到就目前海水淡化及污水处理能力并不能满足水资源需大于求形势。基于此观点提出建议应加大海水淡化工程的快速发展。关键词:模糊聚类,蜂窝模型,多目标规划,回归预测,水资源一、问题重述 Problem Restatement 问题背景:淡水是世界上大多数地区发展的限制因素。构建一个数学模型, 为2013 年提出有效、可行、低成本的水资源战略(水资源利用策略),以满足 2025 年中国的水资源规划需求,并且决定最优化的水资源战略(水资源利用策略)。 Question Background: Fresh water is the limiting constraint for development in much of the world. Build a mathematical model for determining an effective, feasible, and cost-efficient water strategy for 2013 to meet the projected water needs of China in2025, and identify the best water strategy (Water resource utilization strategy). 待求解问题: 、脱盐和保护问题。 、物理、和环境方面的影响。 ,概述模型方法、可行性、和成本,以及为什么该战略是最佳选择。待解决问题 P roblems tobe solved :1. to address the storage and movement; de-salinization; and conservation of water resource. 2. to discuss the economic, physical, and environmental implications of the strategy .3. Provide a non-technical position paper to governmental leadership outlining the approach, its feasibility and costs, and why it is the “ best water strateg