Application of anizing-Maps Technique in Downscaling GCMs Climate Change Projections for Same, Tanzania . Tumbo a, E. Mpeta b, . Mbillinyi a, . Kahimba a*, . Mahoo a, and M. Tadross c a Department of Agricultural Engineering and Land Planning, Sokoine University of Agriculture, P. O. Box 3003 Morogoro, TANZANIA. b Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA), P. O. Box 3056, Dar es Salaam, TANZANIA. c Department of Environmental & Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, SOUTH AFRICA. ABSTRACT High resolution surface climate variables are required for end-users in climate change impact studies; however, information provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs) has a coarser resolution. Downscaling techniques such as that developed at the University of Cape Town, which is based on anizing Maps (SOMs) technique, can be used to downscale the coarse-scale GCM climate change projections into finer spatial resolutions; but that must bined with verification. The SOM downscaling technique was employed to project rainfall and temperature changes for 2046-2065 and 2080-2100 periods for Same, Tanzania. This model was initially verified using downscaled NCEP reanalysis and observed climate data set between 1979 and 2004, and between NCEP reanalysis and GCM controls (1979 - 2000). After verification, the model was then used to downscale climate change projections of four GCMs for 2046- 2065 ( future-A ) and 2080-2100 ( future-B ) periods. These projections were then used pute changes in the climate variables paring future-A and B to the control period (1961-2000). Verification results indicated that the NCEP downscaled climate pared well with the observed data. Also, comparison between NCEP downscaled and GCM downscaled showed that all the four GCM models (CGCM, CNRM, IPSL, and ECHAM) compared well with the NCEP downscaled temperature and rainfall data. Future projections (2046-2065) indicated 56 mm and 42 mm increase in seasonal total rainfall amounts for
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