中国积极财政政策效应研究.pdf

摘要
1998 年开始实施的积极财政政策对中国政府抵御亚洲金融危机的影响扩
大国内需求保持国民经济持续快速健康稳定的发展起到了关键作用与此
同时也引发了一系列问题积极财政政策对中国经济增长的贡献到底有多大
若继续实施积极财政政策其效应又将如何如何正确认识中国积极财政政策的
挤出效应及其财政风险中国下一阶段如何进一步发挥财政政策的宏观调控效
应等等
考虑到以上诸问题与积极财政政策的效应密切相关本论文分别分析研究了
积极财政政策的经济增长效应挤出效应与财政风险
首先在对中国积极财政政策进行综述的基础上运用 IS-LM 模型实证测算
了积极财政政策对中国经济增长的贡献力度并接着对中国继续实施这一政策的
前景进行了分析预测认为其效应将不明显
其次分析研究了中国继续实施积极财政政策的负面效应认为虽然目前中
国积极财政政策的负面效应较小但随着该政策的继续实施其负面效应将随之
增大一是挤出效应将日益明显二是财政风险必须引起高度重视
最后探讨了中国下一阶段进一步发挥财政政策的宏观调控效应的政策选择
认为积极财政政策的转型有利于进一步发挥财政政策的宏观调控效应并提出了
转型的政策建议

关键词积极财政政策经济增长效应挤出效应财政风险转型
I
ABSTRACT
The active fiscal policy implemented by the Chinese government since 1998 has
played an important role in ing the adverse effects of Asian Financial Crisis,
stimulating domestic demands, and maintaining a sustained, rapid, and sound
development in economy. But at the same time, it has brought some problems such as:
how much contribution to Chinese economic growth has been done by the active fiscal
policies on earth, whether we can forecast its effect if Chinese government continue to
implement it? How we shall analyze its crowding out effect and its fiscal risk? What
Chinese government shall do to fully exert the macro adjustment effect of fiscal
policies?
All these problems have intimate relationships with the effect of the active fiscal
policy. In order to provide Chinese government with ideas on fully exert the macro
adjustment effect of fiscal policies, this essay focus on research on the effect of the
active fiscal policy which embraces three parts: the economic growth effect, crowding
out effect and fiscal risk.
Firstly, after the growth effect of the active fiscal policy on economy is examined
in the IS-LM model on the basis of a generalization of the active fiscal policy, this essay
predicts the perspective effect of the continuous implementation of the active fiscal
policy and thinks it will not be effective.
Secondly, although now, the side effect of the active fiscal