BMI Industry View.doc

BMI Industry View - Australia - Q3 2009 Australia - Food & Drink -18 Jun 2009 business monitor international Australia 's economic prospects have continued to deteriorate asa result of the global slump, with this having a marked effect on the country's food and drink sector, as discussed in BMI 's recently published Australia Food & Drink Report for Q309. While the economy will receive a boost from the wide range of policy measures unveiled in the first months of2009, these are unlikely to prevent it from slipping into a more prolonged period of downturn -- with the slowdown led by falling rates of private consumption growth and investment. As discussed in the report, Australian retail sales rose bya seasonally-adjusted % month- on-month (m-o-m) in January. Sales were supported by the lag from an (US$) fiscal stimulus measure, in the form of cash handouts, distributed in December. The second round of cash payments, (US$) -- distributed in mid-March -- is expected to have a similar impact on sales growth in March and April. However, it is widely believed that the retail sector will not report the sort of growth that the package was designed to trigger, as most consumers have not spent the majority of the payment. In fact, according to local estimate, only 25% of the December handout was spent, even as the government ramps up measures to encourage