基于CGE模型的碳税政策对我国经济影响分析.pdf.pdf

天津大学硕士学位论文基于CGE模型的碳税政策对我国经济影响分析姓名:秘翠翠申请学位级别:硕士专业:管理科学与工程指导教师:赵涛 2011-12 摘要国际经济的不断发展也随之带来越来越严重的气候变化问题。2005年,全球大气二氧化碳浓度达到379ppm,为65万年来最高,全球地表平均温度升高了 ,全球气候变暖已经严重影响到人类环境和自然生态,低碳之路是各国的必然选择。政策制度是低碳经济发展的基石,高效、有力的政策将推动低碳经济的发展,碳税是一种富有经济效率的政策手段。本文基于可计算一般均衡(Cornoutable General Equilibrium Model,CGE) 建模理论构建了一个七部门的CGE模型,分析碳税政策的实施对我国煤炭、石化、电力、建筑等高污染、高能耗部门的影响,以及对我国宏观经济总体的影响, 本文的建模过程和政策分析理论既可以为其他政策分析提供一定的方法支持,也为行业征收碳税研究提供有效手段。本文的主要内容共6章,文章围绕CGE模型的构建原理与应用。第一章为绪论部分,介绍了选题背景以及国内外的研究现状,第二章为理论概述,第三章是CGE模型的模块构建,该模型共包含生产、收入、消费、对外贸易、均衡与宏观闭合共六大模块,文中详细介绍了每个模块的构建思路和方程描述,第四章是部分划分、社会核算矩阵(Social Accounting Matrix,SAM)表编制和模型参数的设定,为求解CGE打下好的数据基础,第五章是通过GAMS软件求解模型以及结果分析。第六章为结论与展望。关键词:CGE模型;差别碳税;政策模拟;经济影响 ABSTRAC T With thecontinuous development of international economy,the issueofclimate change hasalsobeen caught more and more ,the gbbal atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration reached 379pprn,the highest ,and the gbbal average surface temperature by riseby ℃,gbbal warming will seriously affect the human environment and ecology and thedevelopment of low-carbon economy isthe inevitable of effective policy system isthe cornerstone ofthedevelopment ofbw-carbon economy,efficient and effectivepolicy can promote low-carbon economy and carbon tax is agood policy instrument with richeconomic efficiency. We build putable General Equilibrium Model)with seven departments based on general equilibrium theory toanalyze theimplementation ofa carbon tax on China’Shighpollution,high energy-consumption sectors(such ascoal policy,petrochemical,power and building),as well as on China’S overall macroeconomic modeling theory andpolicyanalysis process can provide method support forother policy analysis,it can alsoprovide effectivemeans for carbon tax on the article includes sixchapters around the CGE modeling principles andapplications:Chapter isthe invoduction ofthe research background and current situationof CGE research athomeandab