人民币升值与通货膨胀的治理论文.doc

人民币升值与通货膨胀的治理论文.doc大学毕业论文
人民币升值与通货膨胀的治理
专业名称：国际经济与贸易 班 级：
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目前，我国的宏观经济正在经历着通货膨胀，这样的货币市场的不平衡对 于产品市场乃至国际市场造成了不利的影响。对于治理通货膨胀的方法，国的 各界人士都给出了自己的看法,不少学者认为通过人民币的快速升值能够控制 目前的流动性过剩现状，笔者经过系统的分析认为'不仅短期人民币的快速升 值不能够起到控制通胀的作用，甚至会给通货膨胀的现状带来压力，使治理通 胀的货币政策被动，乃至增加了潜在的金融风险，给中国的经济带来更多的不 确定性。本文通过分析国通货膨胀的成因，认为如今在CPI和PPI同时出现增 幅上涨的情况下，通胀已经变为成本型的通货膨胀。本文结合了历史数据分析 了人民币升值与通货膨胀治理的关系，并在全球性通货膨胀的背景下分析了人 民币升值对进出口贸易、投机资本流动和货币政策效果等等的影响。最终提出 了治理当前的通货膨胀的措施：应该重视的是人们对人民币升值的预期所产生 的经济影响，而不是仅仅寄希望于人民币的快速升值；应从根本上改变贸易增 长方式，减少经济增长对净出口拉动的依赖；应改善贸易结构，增加对于能源 资源高技术产品的进口，这样以实现衡。同时，应提高市场吸收 货币的能力并进行正确的引导，使资源得到优化配置，减少货币的流动性过剩。 只有这样，才有利于目前通货膨胀的缓解，有利于从根本上稳住物价的上涨趋 势，有利于减少不确定性以促进我国经济的长期持续稳定增长，有利于提高我 国的综合国力，提高中国在世界的地位。
关键词 人民币升值；通货膨胀；通货膨胀治理
ABSTRACT
At present, China s macroeconomic are experiencing inflation. The imbalance of the money market has adversely affected products market and international market. For the method of controlling inf lation, the domestic people have given their views, many scholars believe that the rapid appreciation of RMB could control the excess liquidity status, wh
订e the author holds that not only the rapid short -term RMB Apprecia tion can not play a role in cont roll ing inf 1 at ion, or even the sta tus quo will bring pressure on inf la tion, the inflation control passive monetary policy, and increase the potential financial risks and bring more uncertainty into China s economy. Through analysis of the causes of domestic inf lation that now in the circumstances of CPI and PPI rising sharply, inf lation has become the cost of inflation. In this paper, combined with historical data, the author analyzes the relationship between the appreciation of the RMB and inf lation control, and in the context of global inf lation the impacts such as the appreciation of the RMB onto the import and export trade, speculative capital flows and monetary policy effects and so on. Cuirent inflation measures are as followed: that people should pay attention to the influences aroused by the expe