云南木蠹象Pissodes yunnanensis Langor and Zhang在云南省的潜在分布区预测.pdf

动物学研究2011,(suppl):180_l跗 Zoological 53-1040/Q ISSN 0254-5853 云南木蠢象Pissodes yunnanensis Langor and Zhang 在云南省的潜在分布区预测黄阳洋,潘涌智,熊忠平’(西南林业大学林学院。云南省森林灾害预警与控制重点实验室,云南昆明650224) 摘要:本文利用云南木蠹象(Pissodes yunnanensis Langor and Zhang)的分布点数据和环境因子数据,通过 Maxent生态位模型预测了云南木蠹象在云南省的潜在分布区域。结果表明:云南木蠹象在云南省的适生面积占全省面积的l/2以上。在ArcGIS中进行显示与风险等级划分。按栅格数值的大小将云南木蠹象的适生范围分为4级, 分级标准为:高适生区以红色表示;中适生区以青色表示;低适生区以黄色表示;非适生区以灰色表示。计算结果经ROC曲线分析法验证,(非常接近1),表明预测获得了较好的效果。关键词:云南木蠢象;Maxent;潜在分布区;ArcGIS;云南省中图分类号: 文献标志码:A 文章编号:0254—5853一(2011)suppl一0180·05 Predicting Potential Geographical Distribution ofPissodes yunnanensis Langor and Zhang inYunnan Province Huang ,PAN ,Xiong ‘(Faculty Southwest Forestry University,Key LaboratoryofForest Disaster Warning and Control,Kunraing Yunnan 650224,China) Abstract:Ecological niche modeling technique,Maximum entropy(Maxent),was used predict potential distribution ofPbsodes yunnanensis、n Y11Ilnan Province based onassociations between known occurrence records and a setofenvironmental results show thatthesuitable areas forP yunnanensis infestations were over halfof totalareas ofYunnan therevelation grades are made and theareas for只yunnanensis infestations were divided intofourgrades by different colors:red forthehighly suitable areas;the moderate suitable areas arecyan;yellow on behalf ofthel