雄安新区旱涝趋势分析.docx

雄安新区旱涝趋势分析
 
 
周浩伟　刘苏峡　李峰平
摘要：旱涝趋势对雄安新区规划建设至关重要。增补构建了雄安新区1469年到2018年的连续550 a历史旱涝等级数据。以每10 a中的偏涝（旱）年份频次组成的旱涝等级数据序列（后简称偏涝、偏旱序列）作为研究对象，采用Lee-Heghinian法、有序聚类法、滑动T检验法识别序列的突变点，采用线性趋势回归检验、Spearman秩次法识别序列的变化趋势，采用R/S分析法对序列进行预测分析。结果表明：1469-2018年，雄安新区偏涝序列在1579-1588年间存在突变点，突变点前、后的子序列分别呈现出不显著的上升趋势和显著的上升趋势;偏旱序列在1919-1928年间存在突变点，突变点前、后的子序列分别呈现出不显著的下降趋势和不显著的上升趋势。Hurst指数综合预测结果显示，，未来偏涝序列呈从显著下降到不显著上升趋势，偏旱序列呈从不显著上升到显著下降趋势。
关键词：雄安新区;旱涝等级;趋势分析;突变分析;R/S分析
中图分类号：P426文献标志码：A
Abstract：Trends of drought and flood are very important for the planning and construction of Xiong′an New this paper，550 years of historical drought and flood grade data from 1469 to 2018 in Xiong′an New Area were data series of drought and flood grade with frequency of drought-prone and flood-prone years in every 10 years were our research object，which were abbreviated as drought-prone and flood-prone sequences in our turning points of the sequences were identified by Lee-Heghinian method，ordered clustering and moving t- trends of the sequences were identified with linear trend regression test and Spearman rank sequences were predicted with a R/S analysis met
results showed that there was a turning point in 1579-1588 for the flood-prone subsequence showed an insignificant upward trend before this turning point，and a significant upward trend after was a turning point in 1919 to 1928 for the drought-prone subsequence showed an insignificant downward trend before this turning point，and an insignificant upward trend after the significant level of ，Hurst index forecasting showed that the flood-prone sequence would show a trend varying from significantly decreasing to insignificantly increasing in the future，while the drought-prone sequence would show a trend varying from insignificantly increasing to significantly decreasing.
Key words：Xiong′an New Area;drought and flood grades;trend