基于决策树的企业投资方案决策分析报告.doc

基于决策树的企业投资方案决策分析
摘要：随着信息化水平的提高，人们对决策的科学性的要求程度越来越高，以往的靠决策者个人意志左右的决策已经不能适应复杂多变的决策环境了，本文依据投资决策的部分流程，对企业投资决策选择、投资方案选择进行了研究。全文从A企业的投资案例出发，对企业投资方案的决策
进行了分析，建立了以excel、决策树、水晶球为依托的投资决策模型，解决了企业在面临多个层次、多种方案决策问题时的决策问题，以及以此为依据进行的概率分步模拟的决策问题。
同时，在目前市场竞争激烈、投资成本不断攀升的情况下，如何正确选取投资的方案也受到越来越多的企业的关注。本文针对目前企业投资规划阶段出现的盲目确定方案的现状，对投资的决策和方案的选择进行了研究，并通过建立基于决策树的数学模型对这种选择进行“量化”，希望能够有效地降低决策过程中的主观随意性。
本文主要完成了以下几项工作：
(1) 明确了企业投资决策的概念，分析了决策分析及决策树的理论基础，解析了在进行投资决策时的所面临的风险，以及决策树和水晶球模拟的基本原理和建模步骤。通过对企业投资方案选择的分析，规划出了各个方案的风险图。
(2) 以企业投资决策分析为主线，结合投资案例，建立了基于决策树的多层次模型和
基于水晶球模拟的预测模型。
(3) 本文运用理论联系实际的方法对上述容进行了探讨和研究，为不断地改进
完善我国现阶段企业投资决策方法提出了可行的方法和建议。
关键词：决策分析；决策树；风险；模拟
Decision Analysis of the enterprise’s investment Based on Decision Tree Model
Abstract：With the improvement of informatization level, people’s scientific demands on the decision making are more and more high, in the past, the individual will by policymakers around by decision can not adapt to the complex and changeable decision environment already, based on the part process, investment decision of enterprise investment choices, investment scheme selection is studied. From A corporate investments case, to analysis the risk, the paper builds rely on excel, decision-making tree, crystal balls, building the investment decision making model, solved in the face of multiple levels and enterprises of the decision making problem decision-making problem and how it can be simulated problems’ probability.
Meanwhile, in the current market competition is intense, investment costs rising cases, how to correctly select investment project is also receiving more and more attention from enterprises. In view of present enterprise investment planning stages of the blind sure scheme situation, investment decisions and options are studied, and by establishing the mathematical model based on the decision tree for this choice, hope to the quantization effectively reduce the decision process of subjective freedom.
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