长江流域感潮河段潮位预报研究及在南京站的应用.pdf

t嘲:灾本文根据{丈江流域感潮河段水位受j二游来水和下游潮汐影响的特点,以相应水位法基本原理为基础,设计开发了分离水位过程线预报模型,并研制r可实时业务化运行的预报方案。同时介绍了相应水位法、有限记忆最小二乘法、人:,并在南京站建立了相应的潮位预报方案。对南京站的四种潮位预报方案,从模型预报结果和基本原理等进行了全面的对比分析研究。研究结果表明,相应水位法模型、有限记忆最小:乘法模型以及分离过程线法模型适用于长江流域感潮河段的潮位预报,而BP预报模型由于其模拟震荡型过程线的局限性,其适用性有待于进一步的改进和研究。本文利用可视化的开发工具Visual Basic 、地理信息系统=次开发控件 MapObjects,结合实时洪水预报系统开发中的原型设计法相关准则,玎发了南京站潮位预报系统。系统主要包括地理信息管理子模块、水情数据管理子模块、预报子模块和方案评价子模块。方案评价功能较好地满足了实时防洪决策的需要, 具有一定的新意。系统架构合理,各个功能子模块独立运行,相互配合,运行协调顺畅。实际试用表明,本文研制的预报方案,达到了较高的预报精度,软件系统操作简便实用、功能齐全,可满足实时业务化运行需要。关键词:潮位预报;实时预报系统;相应水位法;有限记忆最小二乘;BP模型地理信息系统; ABS~1RAC’1 Intltispaper,basic principle oflineofcorrespoinding stages method and leastsquare method have been introduced indetail,for each method,tidal level forecast model isestablished Moreover separating water levelprocess lineforecastmodel isdesigned and developed on thebase ofcharacteristic ofthe water leveloftidalreach ofYangtze River attachment,which was affected by the upstream tideand thedownstream tide,and the principle oflineofcorrespoinding stages thisdissertation artificial work BP model isattempted toapply totidalforecasting oftidalreach and BP forecasting model is order to analyze pare advantage and weakness offour kinds of forecasting fourmethods are applied totidal’levelforecasting forNanjing tidal beconcluded from theresultand basicprinciple contrast analysis ofever?, kind forecasting model thatlineofcorrespoinding stages method model and separate water levelprocess I,ine forecastmodel andfinite—memory leastsquare model are applicable totidal reach oftheYangtze River attachment BP forecasting model should be ameliorated and reached because oflocalization ofwater level process ofoscillating Inthispaper,the real—timetidallevelforecasting system forNanjing tidal station was developed on thebase ofcorrelation hydrological model,visual development toolVisual ,geographical information system secondary deve