Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists-2012-Matthes-42-54.pdf

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Exit economics: The relatively low cost of Germany's nuclear phase-out
Felix Chr. Matthes
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2012 68: 42
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Exit economics: The relatively DOI:
low cost of Germany’s nuclear http://thebulletin.
phase-out
Felix Chr. Matthes
Abstract
The decision of the German government, post-Fukushima, to phase out the countryÕs nuclear power sector by
2022 builds on legislation in place since 2002. This earlier legislation was amended in 2010 to extend the
lifetime of the nuclear plants, but the German parliament reversed this extension in the summer of 2011,
slightly accelerating the original phase-out schedule; therefore, the market and the nuclear operators were
prepared for the shutdown schedule. In this context, it is not surprising that the observed price impacts from
the shutdown of 40 percent of the German nuclear power capacity in 2011 are smaller than some modeling
exercises had projected. When empirical observation is analyzed in light of a range of economic models, the
price effect of the nuclear phase-out can be expected to peak at 5 euros per megawatt-hour or less for a f