从中美产业内贸易看中美贸易发展趋势.docx

摘要产业内贸易大量出现于第二次世界大战结束以后,随着国际贸易的发展,产业内贸易逐渐成为国际贸易中新的贸易型态。近年来,产业内贸易又成为一个热点研究领域。这一方面是因为产业内贸易发展越来越广泛,现在产业内贸易已经不仅仅局限于发达国家,发展中国家的产业内贸易也越来越重要。中美两国作为亚太地区最大的发展中国家和最发达国家,两国的双边贸易不仅是自身经济增长的重要动力,同时对世界经济也具有重大影响。在中国同美国这个最大的贸易伙伴国的双边贸易中,我们既不能忽视以资源禀赋理论为基础的比较优势理论所揭示的产业间贸易的竞争格局,也不能不关注产业内贸易规模的扩大将成为国际贸易增进的主要趋势。本文主要利用联合国贸易数据库、中国海关统计年鉴和美国统计局公布的数据,选取格鲁贝尔—劳埃德指标与格林纳韦指数对中美产业内贸易进行总体、分行业及分类型的实证分析,通过多角度的比较分析,得出两国产业内贸易的特点与发展趋势,既而从产业内贸易的实证角度来反映中美两国贸易发展的动态趋势。本文通过大量的实证分析得出的结论是:中美贸易产业内贸易指数普遍较低, 产业间贸易是双边贸易的基本格局。两国的产业内贸易从结构上来看,主要是以工业制成品为支撑;从类型来看,主要特征并不是产业内横向贸易,而是价格和质量有所区别的产业内垂直贸易,后者占产业内贸易的主导地位。并且近年来这种趋势还有所加强。在影响中美两国产业内贸易指数的各因素中,外商直接投资所引起的加工贸易的快速发展起了关键性的作用。最后以所得结论为主要依据, 从政府、行业和企业的角度寻求提升我国国际贸易模式和国际贸易竞争力的行动方略。关键词: 产业内贸易;中美贸易;贸易发展趋势;对策建议 I ABSTRACT Intra-industry trade have emerged since the end of World War II, with the development of international trade, Intra-industry trade gradually e a new international trade pattern. In recent years, intra-industry trade has e ahot research field. This is because the development of intra-industry trade increasingly wide spreads. Now intra-industry trade has not only confined to the developed countries, it also has e increasingly important in developing countries. China and the United States, as the largest developing country and the most developed countries in Asia-Pacific region, their bilateral trade isnot only their economic growth engine, but also has a significant impact to the world economy. To Sino-US trade, We should not overlook inter-petition, based on parative advantage theory enshrined in resource endowment, also have to pay close attention to the expansion of intra-industry trade which will be the main trend to enhance international trade. This paper, using the United Nations database on trade, the Chinese Customs Statistics Yearbooks and the United States Bureau of Statistics published data, empirically analyses intra-industry trade of Sino-US with Grubel-Lloyd indicators and Greenaway index. Through the analysis of multiple perspectives, we receive chara