山洪灾害预警指标确定方法.doc

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ——————————————————————————————————————山洪灾害预警指标确定方法李昌志孙东亚摘要:简要分析了山洪灾害监测预警指标的类别和研究情况,在此基础上介绍了确定指标的理论和经验方法, 主要的理论方法包括经典水文理论法、土壤饱和度—降雨量关系法、水位流量反推法以及暴雨临界曲线法, 经验方法有统计归纳法、比拟法和内插法等, 提出了加强山洪灾害预警指标研究的四点建议。关键词:山洪灾害;预警指标;确定方法 Determination of flood warning index for mountain flood//Li Changzhi , Sun Do ngya Abstract : The type and research of monitoring and early -warning of mountain flood are briefed. Theory and experiences of indexes determination are introduced including methods of classical hydrological theory, saturation percentage of soil-precipitation relationship, back stepping method of water level and flow, as well as thunderstorm critical curve method and experimental methods of statistical deductive method, analogy method and interpolation method. Four suggestions are made for strengthening studies on early-warning of mountain flood disasters. Key words: mountain flood disaster; early-warning index; determination method 一、山洪灾害预警指标研究简述------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ——————————————————————————————————————根据目前的主要文献及应用情况, 山洪灾害预警指标主要有临界雨量和临界水位/ 流量。前者主要指在一个流域或区域内,降雨量达到或超过某一量级和强度时,该流域或区域发生山溪洪水、泥石流、滑坡等山洪灾害, 把这时的降雨量和降雨强度作为预警指标。后者可以理解为某种特征水位,如警戒水位、平滩水位、转移水位等。自 2009 年开始, 我国开展了 103 个县的山洪灾害防治试点工作, 目前正式开展了全国 1 836 个县的山洪灾害防治非工程措施建设工作